劳动生产率工资差距：对泰国企业的影响和风险

Labor Productivity-wage Gap:Impacts and Risks to Thai Businesses Executive Summary3 Introduction4 Minimum Wages in the Past Decade: OverallImpacts on Living Standards and Businesses5 Thailand’s Labor Productivity: Sluggish RecoveryAfter the Pandemic9 Labor Productivity-wage Gap: A Narrower GapSignals Weak Competitiveness Labor Productivity-wage Gap: Impacts from theMinimum Wage Hike KrungsriResearch View18 References20 Unlessexplicitlystatedotherwise,thispublicationandallmaterialthereinisunder the copyright ofKrungsriResearch. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.Thisreportdrawsonawiderangeofwell-establishedandtrustworthysources,butKrungsriResearchcanmakenoguaranteeoftheabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover,KrungsriResearch will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly fromany use towhich this reportorthe datacontained therein maybe put.Theinformation,opinions,andjudgementsexpressedinthisreportarethoseofKrungsriResearch, but this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinionsof Bank ofAyudhyaPublic Company Limited or of any other companies withinthe same commercial group. This report is an accurate reflection of the thinkingand opinions ofKrungsriResearch as of the day of publication, but we reservethe right to change those opinions without prior notice. For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Executive Summary Amid a sluggish recovery in Thailand’s economy after the pandemic, the government’s recent minimumwage hike has raised concern among businesses about rising production costs and reducedcompetitiveness. To address this concern, we identify sectors vulnerable to minimum wage hikes throughthree indicators, namely wages, labor productivity, and the labor productivity-wage gap. The results showthat sectors with near-zero or negative productivity-wage gaps—especially in Electrical Equipment,Vehicles & Transport Equipment, Electronics, Rubber & Plastics, and Textiles & Apparel—are the most atrisk, as minimum wage hikes incur direct labor costs while productivity might not be able to keep pacewith rising wages, leading to lower profitability. At the same time, the recent minimum wage hike might have limited positive impacts on improvingworkers’standard of living when considering the scale of negative impacts on businesses. This mightsuggest that the government should consider alternative policies (along with minimum wage hikes) toimprove workers’standard of living in the long term, such as subsidies for upskilling and reskilling.Moreover, this might urge firms in at-risk sectors to accelerate productivity improvement through R&D,digitalization, or automation to boost operational efficiency and profitability, which will, in turn, helpsupport growth and competitiveness in the longer term. SupasynItthiphatwong EconomistSupasyn.itthiphatwong@krungsri.com+662296 4748 Introduction After the COVID-19pandemic, Thailand’s economic recovery has been sluggish, with GDP in2023still0.2%below its pre-pandemic level in2019. This slow rebound is particularly apparent in the GDP of themanufacturing sector, which remains2.3% below its2019level. Additionally, the government’s recentminimum wage hike to337-400baht per day nationwide might further complicate the recovery, as thisincrease could affect production costs and Thailand’s overall business competitiveness. In light of these challenges, this study aims to evaluate sectors—based on their structure and evolvingdynamics of labor costs—that are likely to continue sustaining growth and profitability, as well as thosevulnerable to rising costs, particularly due to wage hikes, by examining three main indicators: wages, laborproductivity, and the labor productivity-wage gap (productivity-wage gap). Together, these indicatorsshow how efficiently firms can keep up production levels with rising wages. Moreover, the study seeks toexplain possible common factors contributing to both positive and negative productivity-wage gaps. Accordingly, the study is organized into five sections: (i) minimum wages and real wages in the pastdecade, (ii) labor productivity, (iii) the labor productivity-wage gap, (iv) impacts of the recent minimumwage hike on the labor productivity-wage gap, and (v) common labor productivity-wage gap determinantsand future momentum. Minimum Wages in the Past Decade: OverallImpacts on Living Standards and Businesses Despite limited wage increases in the past decade, minimum wage hikes have still raised concerns forSMEs. During2015-2023, minimum wages (Figure1) increased by just1.3% per year, and its growth trackedclosely with the inflation rate of0.9% on average (Figure2). As a result, real wages grew by only0.6%during the same period, with growth nearly stagnating after the pandemic (Figure3).This suggests thatminimum wage adjustments during2015-2023had limited impac