行业展望（2022年1月）

INDUSTRYHORIZON January 2022 2022-24 INDUSTRY FORECAST Thailand Industry Outlook 2022-2024 Globaleconomy:Differentstepstowardsnormalization Overthenext3years,theworldeconomyisexpectedtoexpandmoderatelywithmultispeedofpolicynormalization.Tailwindsincludevaccinationprogress,relaxedcontainmentmeasures,reopeningeffect,andnewinvestmentcycle.However,risksanduncertaintypersist,mostnotablyfromthepossibleemergenceofnewCovid-19strains,supplychainbottlenecks,andsideeffectfrommajorcountries’policynormalization. Thaieconomy:Firststepsonthepathtorecovery Thaieconomyisonthepathtorecoverydespiteanunevencourse.Consumptionisrecoveringunevenlywitheasingrestrictionsandstimulusmeasures.Exportswouldgrowfurtherfollowingglobaleconomicrecoveryandregionalization.Improvingeconomicactivity,risingexports,andacceleratinginfrastructureprojects,wouldleadtoanewinvestmentcycle.Tourismshowssignsofnascentrecoverybutwilltakeseveralyearstoreturntopre-pandemiclevel.RisksandchallengesincludedCOVID-19pandemic,crisisscars(suchasfragilelabormarketandhighdebt),domesticpoliticalrisks,USpolicynormalization,globalsupply-sideconstraints,andgeopoliticalrisks. Structuralchanges:Moderntechnology,servicification,shorteningglobalvaluechainsandinfrastructureinvestmentaredominantthemesforThailand’sindustryoutlook ModerntechnologyisakeydrivertransformingThailand’sindustrytowardsgrowthsustainabilityamidcompetitivepressuresfromshorteningglobalvaluechainandregionaltradeblocs.Newtechnologyandinnovationwillalsoaddgreatervaluetoproductsintheformofservicification.WithsomestructuralproblemserodingcompetitivenessofThaiindustry,spendingongovernment-backedmegaprojectswillprovideopportunitiesforinvestmentindownstreamandrelatedindustries. 2022-24Thaiindustryoutlook:tippingtowardsagradualrecovery FollowingaperiodofCOVID-19impactsin2020-21,Thailand’sindustriescouldbeheadingforagradualrecoveryin2022-24butatvaryingdegree. Withapathofrecovery,weselectsomeindustriesthatareexpectedtobenefitfromglobalgradualrecovery,moderntechnologytransformation,astrongpositioninglobalvaluechains&tradeintegrationandnationalinfrastructuredevelopment.TheyincludeAutomobile,HDD,IC,PrivateHospitals,Digitalservicesandsoftware,Powergeneration,IndustrialestateandMedicaldevices.However,somebusinessesthatcouldfacemajorheadwindsespeciallyfromCOVID-19variantimpactsaremostlyservicesectorsthatrelyheavilyonconsumerconfidenceincludingHotelandHousing(notablySMEdevelopers). Key environments influencing the outlook of Thailand’s industry Macroenvironments Industry Outlook Industrialenvironments Global economic growth will stabilize on unwinding stimulus butrely more on real demand of private sector Over the next 3 years, the world economy is expected to expand at an average rate of 3.9% per year, slowing to this more moderate ratehaving hit 5.9% in 2021 on the combined effects of large-scale stimulus spending and the reopening of the major economies. Tailwinds lifting the global economy in the coming period will stem from more vigorous activity in the private-sector, boosted by recovery inservices and ongoing growth in manufacturing, which will itself be the beneficiary of the progress of vaccination programs, therelaxation ofpandemic control measures, the gradual reopening of many countries, new investment cycle in major countries, and the effectsofaccommodative fiscal and monetary policy, although this is being scaled back as the pandemic recedes. However, risks and uncertainty persist, most notably from the possible emergence of new Covid-19 strains, worries over the efficacy ofvaccines, and supply chain bottlenecks that may persist until 2022. In addition, the need to combat stronger inflationary pressures through policy normalization and the raising of central bankinterest rates mayresult in higher operating costs for businesses in the period ahead. Global economy shifting from manufacturing to being largelyfocused on services Theshare of global GDP generated by the service sector rose from 60.4% in 2008 to 64.3% in 2019. In developed economies, this share isgenerally much higher and around 75% of US and UK GDP comes from services, mostly from modern services such as IT/software and finance. InThailand, services comprised 58.3% of the economy as of 2020, up from 50.4% in 2008. In the coming period, there is an opportunity for the service sector to increase its contribution to Thai GDP thanks to the growing application ofnew technology and innovation within the sector,for example through the development of online platforms that provide access to global touristsites, and the development of robotic and remote surgical systems. At the same time, the manufacturing sector is also turning to“servicification”toadd greater value to their products and to widen product differentiation. Modern technology transforming industry towards growthsustainability The wave of the digital revolution is now carrying the whole world along, is not just building added value across the economy, it is also