行业展望（2022年7月）

INDUSTRYHORIZON July 2022 Globalgrowthisslowingdown;IMFslashedglobalgrowthoutlookamidhigherinflation,risinginterestrates,Ukrainewar,andChina’sstrictcovidpolicy Major economies continue to slow down despite recovering economicactivity in China, improving delivery times, and better supply situation Thailand Economic Outlook 2022 Outlook: Divergent growth across key drivers amid external headwinds- Headwinds Russia-Ukraine crisis, affectingcommodity prices, global trade,and supply chainsChina’s weak recovery with tightcontainment measuresVolatile financial markets amidrising global interest ratesCrisis legacies such asunemployment and high debtDomestic political uncertaintyStructural problems e.g. lack ofcompetitiveness in some sectors Tailwinds Krungsri Research’s view: We fine-tuned 2022 GDP growth forecast to +3.1% (instead of 2.8%) to reflect better-than-expectedgrowth in 1H22 and improving tourism activity, but overall economic recovery remains fragile Reopening of economic activity inASEAN, including ThailandImproving tourism sectorDomestic policy supportsSubstitution effect from Ukrainewar such as gains in agriculturalsectorRegionalization, ASEAN dynamismThailand’s sound economicfundamentals Despite reopening effects, the economic recovery is being challenged by spillover effects of theRussia-Ukraine crisis on global growth, international trade and tourism, and inflation risk.China’s strict containment measures could disrupt global supply chains and domesticmanufacturing production. Despite rising farm income and domestic policy support, privateconsumption growth could be weighed down by soaring cost of living and high household debt.On policy rate outlook, the first rate hike could happen in August. The weaker baht and highinflation might pressure the MPC to hike rates but the pace would likely be gradual and slowerthan that in neighboring countries Recent EconomicDevelopment Economicactivityhasimprovedoneasingcontainmentmeasures,butthegrowthmightbelimitedbyhighinflation,Ukrainewar,China’szero-covidpolicy,andrisingglobalinterestrates. Althoughdomesticspendingcouldbedrivenbyreopeningeffectandstimulusmeasures,purchasingpowerwouldbepressuredbyasurgeininflation.Exportcouldgrowataslowerpaceduetoweakerglobalgrowthandsupplychaindisruptiondespitegainsfromtradediversion.Tourismsectorwouldcontinuetorecoveronthebackoftheeasingofdomesticpandemicandrelaxationofthecountry’scontainmentmeasure.Highunemployment,highdebt,andrisingglobalinterestratesweighonpaceofeconomicrecovery. Chip shortages:expected to drag on into mid-2023 as a result of theextension of the Russia-Ukraine war and China's zero-Covid policy The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war isworsening pre-existing problems with chip shortages due to the importance in the chip manufacturing process ofmaterials supplied by Russia and Ukraine. In particular, problems are being caused by shortages of neon and palladium, thoughover the short term, theimpacts of this will be limited by the fact that stocks of neon should be sufficient to last until 3Q22. In addition, manufacturers should also be able to adaptby making purchases from Chinese suppliers, which have a 40-50% market share, and by recycling neon used in production processes. At the same time,some chip manufacturers have switched to buying palladium from suppliers in South Africa (which has a 30% share of global supply), Canada, and the US.This has then helped palladium prices to ease from the highs of April 2022. China’s implementation of its zero-Covid strategyhas continued with a lockdown of Shanghai that lasted from 28 March to 1 June. The area is home tocompanies including SMIC, TSMC and Hua Hong and as such. It is a globally important center of semiconductor production.The effects of the lockdownwere therefore to cut Chinese output of these by-12.1% in April, pushing the total to just 25.9bn units, the lowest level sinceDecember 2020.Inaddition, Shanghai is also a hub of auto parts production, including engines, transmission units, traction motors, EV batteries,battery management system,and speed regulators, and major auto parts companies including Bosch,Aptiv, BorgWarner, Denso, ZF, and Yanfeng Visteon all operate factories in thearea. The recent outbreak of Covid and the subsequent lockdown will therefore have consequences on global chip and auto partssupply chains. The prolonged war in Ukraine and China’s zero-Covid policy will have effects on chip supplychains that are now expected to run into mid-2023, beforebeginning to ease in 2H23.Particularly notable is the shortage of neon, and manufacturers estimate that it will take between 9 months and 2 years toconstruct new neon production facilities and to bring supply from these to market Automobile:Growth in output remained low through1H22due to problemswith the supply of parts, and expected to run to around 3-4% in 2022 As of May 2022, delivery times for chips have slowed from a pre-Covid-19 average of around 12-