行业展望（2023年4月）

2023 Investment Inducing Growth Cassava:Highpricesremainonstrongdemandandhighcostoffertilizerwithinvestmentfocusingonthetransitiontolow-carbonproduction. Outputsforthe2022-2023seasonareexpectedtodeclinebybetween-3.5%and-4.5%to32.6-32.9mntonnes.Thisisaresultoftheimpactofstormsayearearlierandoftheriseinfertilizercosts,whichhashelpedtoreduceyields,andassuch,only0.74mnhouseholds(down-2.5%to-3.5%)areinvolvedincassavaproduction. Investmentistendingtofocusonincreasingthesustainabilityofresourceuseandonshiftingtheindustrytowardsalow-carbonsocialandbusinessmodel,tobeachievedthroughcollaborationwithorganizationsincludingtheASEANCassavaCentreandtheThaiTapiocaStarchAssociation,aswellasbetweencassavaandtapiocaprocessors.Thedevelopmentofenvironmentallyfocusedinvestmentprojectsincludesi)settinglong-termobjectivesforreachingnetzeroby2050-2070,ii)reducinggreenhousegasemissionsbyboostingtheuseofrenewableenergyincassavaprocessingfacilities,andiii)collectingdataonthestandardizationofproductionprocesses,resourceuse,andcarbonfootprints.TheThailandCassavaCenterhasalsosettargetsthatwillhelptoensurethattheindustryisonasecurebasisasregardstheenvironmentanditsresourceutilizationasitmovestoalow-carboneconomicandsocialmodel.Investmentanddemandfromdownstreamindustriesshouldremainonastrongupwardtrendonboththedomesticandexportmarkets,thoughwithoutputscontinuingtoweaken,priceswillremainhighthrough2023. Sugarandmolasses:Overalloutputsshouldrisetomeetstrongerdemand,whileinvestmentinenvironmentallyfriendlydownstreamindustrieswillincrease. Through2022and1Q23,sugarcaneoutputswereboostedbygenerallybeneficialweather,andwithsufficientrain,efficientwatermanagement,risingpricesforsugarcaneandsugar,andthesupportofprocessors,inparticularviatheminimumpriceguarantee,thevolumeofsugarcanebeingpressedinthe2022/2023seasonrose2.0%to93.9mntonnes. Manysugarprocessingfacilitieshaveplannedorhavestartedtoincreasetheirinvestmentsindownstreamindustries,especiallythoseconnectedwiththeenvironmentorwithalternativeenergy.Theseincludemanufacturingenvironmentallyfriendlypackagingfrombagasse,producingethanolfromsugarcane,biomassandsteampowerplants,manufacturingbiomassbriquettes,EVchargingstations,andsolarfarms.Otherrelatedactivitiesincludereducingtheemissionofgreenhousegases,reducingwaterandenergyconsumptionbyreusingtheseasmuchaspossible,recyclingorreusingwasteproducts,trackingthecarbonfootprintofsugar-basedproducts,anddevelopingforestryresourcesasasourceofcarboncreditsandtomoveproducerstowardscarbonneutrality,aspertheBonsucro*sustainablesugarandsugarcaneinitiative.Theseinvestmentswillhelptosupportthegrowthofthesugarindustryandwillallowthistomovewiththeoverallexpansionindemandforfoodanddrinkproducts.In2023,wethereforeexpectsugaroutputstorisebyanother2.0%to10.4mntonnes. Chilled,FrozenandProcessedChickenIndustry:Yieldswillincreaseonpriceincentives,andstrengtheningdemand,withincreasedinvestmenttoimproveenvironmentalstandardsandstrengthensupplychainintegration. Yields of chicken should rise steadily,helped by the incentive effect of high prices on supply and by high demand on both domestic and international markets.Over 2M23, exports of chicken meatincreased 4.3% by volume and 10.2% by valuethanks to: (i) stronger demand from China, especially for frozen goods, following the country’s reopening; (ii) worries over food securitythat have beensustained by the continuation of the Ukraine-Russia war; and (iii) improving trade relations with the Middle East (in particularwith Saudi Arabia) and the widespread acknowledgment of Thailand’sadherence to halal production standards. On the supply side, the widespread outbreak of bird flu in European flocks will alsohelp Thai producers. Domestic demand is growing with the economy andwith recovery in the tourism sector, and demand from restaurants is especially strong. Investment in the chicken industry will generally aim at accelerating industrial transformation in 3 dimensions: (i) increasing the business’s security and improving its sustainability by expandingand integrating supply chainsby, for example, moving upstream into the production of animal feed and downstream into retail operations;(ii) cutting costs by investing in energy production(e.g.,from biomass or solar rooftop installations) and the reuse of wastewater; and(iii) investing in ESG-based productionby improving animal welfare (e.g., allowing access to natural light and reducingstocks), cutting environmental impacts by developing provenance-checking technology, and following through on the plan to startreducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Given these supply-sidechanges to the industry and rising demand,2023 yields are expected to increase by 3.0-3.5% to 2.9-3.0mntonnes. Exports should strengthen by 2.0-3.0% to 1.03-1.05mntonnes, while domesticconsumption is forecast to increase to 1.9-2.0mntonnes, up 3.5-4.5%.The high cost of animal feed, especially of corn, for which supplies are insufficient may add to farmgate prices for chicken,pushing these up to TH