经济月报（2022年6月）

MONTHLYECONOMICBULLETIN June 2022 Global: Shifting into lower gear China Economic activities have bottomed out but threats of resurgentoutbreaks and zero-Covid policy could cause recovery to stumble.Unlike the rebound in 2020, the economy this year would beweighed by series of headwinds, a fragile labor market andweaker external demand.Need additional policies to nurture economic recovery but Chinahas limited room for large stimulus measures. EuropeManufacturing growth is losing momentum amid Russia-Ukraine crisis; labor markets areimproving at different speeds among keycountries but are tighter than pre-Covid level.Tight labor market and inflation outlooksuggest the ECB might start normalizingpolicy soon, while risks to peripheries couldlimit the pace of policy tightening. US Japan Growth will decelerate but remain strong.Tight labor market, strong wage growth,and lower savings rate will continue toboost consumption, contribute to demand-pull price pressureFed is shifting to a more hawkish tone withaggressive rate hikes; looming risk of aneconomic downturn. Recovery delayed by weaker globaldemand, supply disruption, and stricter-than-peers border controls.Expect BOJ to maintain ultra-loosemonetary policy to support targetedfiscal measures to sustain economicrecovery. WorldBankseeshigherstagflationriskamidsharpslowdowningrowth;OECDblamesslowerrecoveryandhigherinflationarypressuresonUkrainewar Signsofglobaleconomicslowdownwithsofterdemandandweakertrade;highinflationwillcontinuetodampenspendinggrowth Aggressivepolicytighteningcyclecouldaccelerateslowdowninglobaleconomicgrowth;largesavingsinadvancedcountriesmighthelppreventaseveredownturn Inanattempttobattlepersistentinflationtriggeredbypost-pandemiceconomicrecovery,majorcountriesarenormalizingextraordinarymonetaryeasing.Majorcentralbanksareexpectedtoseethemostaggressivepolicytighteningcyclesindecades,whichwillslowdowntheglobaleconomy.CapitalEconomicsprojectstheweightedaveragepolicyrateinmajoradvancedeconomieswillriseby240bpswithintwoyears,sharperthantheaverageforthepastfivetighteningcycles.Butthereisonethingdifferentfrompastcycles-interestrateswillremainlow.Therehasalsobeenabuild-upofsavingsbyfirmsandhouseholdsEventhoughprivatenon-financialsectordebtasashareofincomehasrisentoclosetothelevelduringtheGlobalFinancialCrisis(GFC);netofcurrencyanddepositassets,thedebtratiohasbeenlow,whichcouldbeacushionagainsteconomicshockorpreventaseveredownturn. US:Growthisslowingbutremainshigh;tightlabormarket,strongwagegrowth,andlowersavingsratecontinuetoboostconsumption,andexertdemand-pullpricepressure Economicgrowthisslowingbutremainswellaboverecessionlevels.WhileISMManufacturingandServicesPMIdatashowedsignsofstabilizing,theyremainabove-50.Neworderssub-indicesalsoreflectstrongdomesticdemand.ArunningestimateofrealGDPgrowthandcomponentsbasedonavailableeconomicdataforthecurrentmeasuredquarter,calledNowcast,showthatrealGDPgrowth(seasonallyadjustedannualrate)in2Q22mightonlyreach0.9%(dataasofJune8)butPersonalConsumptionExpenditureinthesamequartercouldgrowby3.7%,strongerthanpre-Covidlevel.Despitesomeeasinginthehotlabormarket,jobopeningsremainclosetoarecordhighinAprilandhourlyearningsgrowthishighat5.2%YoYinMay,wellbeyondpre-Covidlevel.Non-farmpayrollsarealsobetterthanmarketexpectations,by390,000inMayConsumershavecontinuedtospendaspersonalsavingsratedroptoa14-yearlowof4.4%inApril.Thetightlabormarket,highwagegrowth,andlowersavingsrateareboostingconsumerspending,whichcouldcontributetorisingdemand-pullinflationarypressure. Amidmorepersistentinflation,Fedisshiftingtomorehawkishtonewithaggressiveratehikes;loomingriskofaneconomicdownturn KrungsriResearch’sview Inresponsetohotter-than-expectedinflation,USpolicymakerssignaledashifttomorehawkishstance,withthedotplotshowingthemedianinterestrateat3.4%byyear-end.Atthe14-15Junemeeting,theFOMCraisedFedfundsrateby75bps,thebiggestincreasesince1994,to1.50-1.75%. TheFOMCisexpectedtoraisetheFedfundsrateby75bpsattheJulymeetingtotamepersistentinflationwhichhasrisentoa40-yearhighof8.6%inMay.TheFed’slatestinflationprojectionalsoexceededthelong-runtargetof2%forthe3-yearforecasthorizon,withanupwardrevisionfor2022inflationforecastto5.2%from4.3%inMarchestimate.TheFedfundsrateisestimatedtoriseto3.4%byyear-end(upsharplyfrom1.9%inMarchprojection)andto3.8%byend-2023(vsonly2.8%inMarchestimate),accordingtotheFed’squarterlydot-plotforecastforinterestrates. ThepaceofpolicytighteningmaybescaledbackfromSeptemberiftherearesignsinflationhaspeakedandcouldsoftenin4Q22followinglastyear’shigh-baseeffect,stabilizingenergyprices,slowingeconomicgrowth,normalizingdemandinservicessector,someeasinginthehotlabormarket,andrisinggoodsinventories. Althoughriskstogrowthmaybecappedbyhealthyhouseholdbalancesheets,aggressivepolicytighteningcouldincreaseriskofaneconomicdownturn.InJune3-9,WallStreeteconomistshadraisedgreaterconcernsofaneconomicdownturnwith48%projectingasoftlandingcomparedto21%forahardlandingand31%forarecession.BloombergEconomics’modelindica