经济月报（2022年8月）

MONTHLYECONOMICBULLETIN Global: From inflation to recessionrisk amid polarization China Fading gains from reopening tailwinds amid rising covid cases andrenewed restrictions in some cities; rising concerns over weakglobal prospects could curb exports.Rising risk in property sector threatens economic recovery; PBOCbucks global trends with surprise rate cut and we expect morepolicy supports to revive growth. EuropeQ2boosted by easing covid restrictions but is on the brink of recession amid fadingreopening tailwinds, weak demand, energysupply crunch, and drought impact.ECB might maintain current policy tighteningpace as labor market remains tight andinflation continues to rise.PEPP purchases and TPI could easefragmentation risk. US Japan Economic growth is cooling amid weakerdomestic demand and unwinding ofstimulus. Strong job market eases recessionfears and suggests further policy tightening.Cooling growth, softening inflation, andtightening financial conditions would slowrate-hike; we expect a 50bp hike in Sep and25bp hike in Nov.Rising risk of decoupling. Economic activity returns to pre-pandemic level but growth could losemomentum with higher number ofcovid cases, global slowdown, and risingprices.Lingering concerns over still-weakeconomic recovery suggest BOJ wouldmaintain ultra-low interest rates in theforeseeable future. Globalslowdownintensifieswithrecessionrisk;IMFslashesglobalgrowthforecastamidUkrainewar,highinflation,risinginterestratesandslowerChinaeconomy Manufacturinggrowthinkeycountriessloweddowndespiteeasingsupplydisruption;recoveryinservicesactivityislosingmomentum US:Economicgrowthiscoolingamidweakerdomesticdemandandunwindingofstimulus;strongjobmarketeasesrecessionfearsandsuggestsfurtherpolicytightening Coolinggrowth,softeninginflation,andtighteningfinancialconditionswouldslowrate-hike;weexpecta50bphikeinSepand25bphikeinNov;risingriskofdecoupling Financial conditions have tightened after the Fed raised rates from near-zeroto2.25-2.50%, which suggests less-aggressive rate hikes ahead Eurozone:Q2boostedbyeasingcovidrestrictionsbutisonthebrinkofrecessionamidfadingreopeningtailwinds,weakdemand,energysupplycrunch,anddroughtimpact ECBmightmaintaincurrentpolicytighteningpaceaslabormarketremainstightandinflationcontinuestorise;PEPPpurchasesandTPIcouldeasefragmentationrisk Headline inflation is not peaking yet and hit a new record of 8.9% in July;the core index advanced to 4.0% from 3.7%; Producer inflation remained high China:Fadinggainsfromreopeningtailwindsamidrisingcovidcasesandrenewedrestrictionsinsomecities;risingconcernsoverweakglobalprospectscouldcurbexports Risingriskinpropertysectorthreatenseconomicrecovery;PBOCbucksglobaltrendswithsurpriseratecutandweexpectmorepolicysupportstorevivegrowth Credit growth slowed amid jitters in the property market with the recent waveof mortgage boycotts possibly hurting developers’sales and cash flows Japan:Economicactivityreturnstopre-pandemiclevel;growthcouldlosemomentumwithhighernumberofcovidcases,globaleconomicslowdown,andrisingprices Pelosi’svisittoTaiwanhasworsenedUS-Chinarelations,raisedtensioninEastAsia,andcreatesrisktoglobaleconomyalthoughChina’srecenttraderetaliationhaslimitedimpact TradedecouplingwouldhurtChinaseverelywhiletheUSwillbehurtbyfinancialdecoupling,butdecouplingcouldbegradualbecauseofgraveconsequencesonboth EffectsoftradeandfinancialdecouplingoftheUSandChina TradedecouplingwouldshrinktheGDPofbothcountries,moreinChinathantheU.S.ExistingChinesetariffssuggestlimitingtradewouldhaveparticularlyadverseeffectsonChina’sGDP. Inafinancialdecoupling,inatit-for-tatsituationwhereeachcountryreducesholdingsoffinancial-assetsintheotherbyx%,thewinnerwouldbeChina.TheprimaryreasonisthatthevalueofChinesefinancialassetsintheU.S.isconsiderablygreaterthanthevalueofU.S.financialassetsinChina.AreinforcingmechanismisthatinitialgainsforChinawouldbetranslatedintolong-termgainsthroughChina’sveryhighsavingsrate.AlowsavingsratefortheU.S.meansthismechanismisweakerintheU.S. Incombinationwithfinancialdecoupling,tradedecouplingwouldlargelyeliminateanyGDPgainsthatChinawouldobtainfromfinancialdecoupling.FortheUS,tradedecouplingwouldaddtotheGDPlosscreatedbyfinancialdecoupling. EscalatingtensionsoverTaiwanaddriskstomanycountriesviatrade,investment,servicessector,anddomesticproduction,dependingonrestrictionsbytheWestandChinaASEANcountriesarereliantonChinabothasasourceofimportedinputsaswellasadestinationforexports,whilemajordisruptionstosemiconductorproductioninTaiwanwouldseverelydisruptthemanufacturing industryinASEAN,includingThailand. TaiwantensioncouldhavelimitedimpactonThaieconomyinthenear-term;iftensionsworsen,therewillbegreaterimpactonThailandbecauseofstronglinkageswithChina TaiwanandChinatensionsarespikingafterChinaannounceditwouldextendseaandairmilitarydrillsoverandaroundTaiwanuntilSeptember.TheThaieconomywouldbeaffectedthroughthefollowingchannels:(i)SupplychainlinkageasTaiwanistheworld’slargestICmanufacturer.Thailand’sICimpo