经济月报（2022年12月）

MONTHLYECONOMICBULLETINSPECIAL EDITION 2022Recap:Thailand’seconomyhasbeenrecoveringsincemid-2022fullreopeningbuthighinflationisaconcern WeprojecttheThaieconomywouldexpandby3.2%in2022,helpedbythevaccinationprogramandeasingoftheCovid-19pandemichaverecoveredrapidlyin2H22.However,theglobalenvironmentisfragileandthewarinUkraineandreintroductionofwidespreadagaintriggereddisruptionsinsupplychainsworldwide.Thiscoincidedwiththepost-pandemicaccelerationindemandaseconomieslife.Asaresult,themarketpullinginoppositedirectionspusheduppricesworldwide,includingThailand.Tourismsectorhasshownvisiblerecoverysincereopening.Thesectorhasbeenrevivedbytheliftingofdomesticpandemicmovebyalmostallcountriestoreduceorremoverestrictionsoninternationaltravel.Exportsectorwasamajordriveroftheeconomyin2022buoyedbytheeasingCovid-19pandemicandresultingsurgeindemandchainscausedbytheUkraine-Russiawaralsoreducedsupplyaswellasstokedadditionaldemandforfoodandcommodities.commoditypriceswhichboostedincomeforsomeThaiexporters,butthesoftereconomyatyear-endalsoledtoaslowdowninPrivateconsumptionhassurgedthankstotheeasingpandemicsituationandsuccessfulvaccinationprogram.Domesticexpenditurereturnedtonormalwithareleaseofpent-updemand,althoughthesewerealsohelpedbythegovernment’smovetoextendandintroducenewmeasurestohelpconsumersweathertheimpactofhigherenergycosts.Privateinvestmenthasbeensupportedbyrisingexportsdespitesupplychainbottlenecksinsomeindustriesandfirmingrecoveryinthetourismsectorandbroadeconomy.Publicspendinghascontinuedtosupporttheeconomythoughitsrolehasbeenreducedbytheimprovingpandemicsituationfunds(emergencyborrowings)earmarkedtobattleCovid-19-THB1trillionandTHB500billion.Thaibahthasbeenvolatilein2022.Formostoftheyear,theUSFed’sstronger-than-expectedratehikeshavebeensteadilymovingtowardsyear-end,theFedhassofteneditsstanceandThailand’stourismsectorhasrebounded;thesehaveimprovedbalance,andwithit,astrongerbaht.TheBankofThailand(BOT)hasraisedpolicyinterestratefromarecordlowof0.50%to1.25%byend-2022.Thisissupportedasharpincreaseinsupply-sideinflationwhichhas,beenparticularlyintenseincommoditymarketsthankstotheUkrainewar.througheffectsareexpectedtopushdomesticheadlineinflationtoa24-yearhighof6.1%in2022. .ForeigntouristarrivalslockdownsinChinahaveworldwidesurgedbackto controlssincemid-2022andthe .ThedisruptionsinsupplyThewarisacausehigherglobaltheexportsector. andeconomicactivityhavestimuluspackages(from2021) domesticdemanddrivenbythe .Thereisstillabalancefromtwo weakeningthebaht.However,thecountry’scurrentaccount byeconomicrecoveryalongwithThecommodityshockandpass- 2023outlook:Domesticrecoverywillbedrivenbytwin-engines-tourismanddomesticconsumption-buttheglobalslowdownandexternalrisksremainathreat 2023 will be the year the Thai economic activity finally returns to or exceeds its pre-pandemic level; full-year 2023 growth isprojected at +3.6%.would surge in 2023 following reopening and after more than 2 quarters of varying degrees of lockdown in 2022. Higher employmspending as pent-up demand fade. Business investment would gain momentum supported by recovering domestic activity and FDI. Thaidecelerate in line with the global slowdown but could see less impact than peers.Tourism, the key economic growth engine, will continue to recover albeit still below pre-pandemic level.The global economy will soften next year but thereopening of the country and relaxation of pandemic-era controls international travel will continue to boost short-haul arrivalsimminent signs of recovery in tourist arrivals from China from the middle of 2023.Private consumption will continue to rise driven by improving consumer sentiment and a strong labor market.The latter will be helped by the recoveringdomestic economy, especially the tourism sector. This will lift household income but low-income earners will have limited room tbecause of high inflation. Their spending growth could be dragged by high levels of household debt, the current cycle of ratehistimulus spending.Private investment will benefit from improving domestic economic activity, infrastructure investment, foreign direction investmemeasures.However, upside will be capped by a combination of softening demand in the export sector and the impact of higher interest raThai export growth is projected to decelerate along with slower global economy and trade.Thailand is facing external challenges as economic growth in majorcountries is projected to slow down coupled with higher risk of recession, especially in the US and Eurozone. However, thereareincrease exports to the ASEAN market where economic growth would be more favorable than other regions.Krungsri Research expects the MPC to raise policy interest rate gradually to 1.75% by end-1Q23 and keep it there for most of thefollowing: (i) the Thai economy is in the early phase of post-pandemic recovery and tourism sector will take time to recover topreheadwinds could heighten in 2023 as the global economy is projected to slow down and advanced economies f