经济月报（2023年6月）

MONTHLYECONOMICBULLETIN June 2023 Global: Juggling inflation fears and recession risk China China has cut key policy rates in response to lessencouraging signs since reopening and weakerexternal demand; growth could disappoint this year. EuropeGiven tight labor market conditions, the ECB might maintain policytightening despite lingering risk of arecession. US Japan FOMC delivers a hawkish pause inJune with most officials projectingtwo more rate hikes this year.But signs of weaker jobs data andeconomic growth might cap ratehikes. Although weak global conditionssuggest downside risk to exports,reopening tailwinds will supporteconomic growth this year. WorldBankprojectsglobalgrowthwilldeceleratein2023despiteChinareopeningandlowerenergyprices;reviseddown2024growthamidtightfinancialconditions Globalgrowthmaynotbesustainablegiventransitorypent-updemandandimpendingrate-hikeimpact;inflationremainshighdespiteeasingglobalsupplychainpressures US:FOMC delivers a hawkish pause in June with most officials projecting two more ratehikes this year, but signs of weaker jobs data and economic growth might cap rate hikes KrungsriResearch’sview Apr-23Atthe13-14Junemeeting,theUSFOMCvotedtoholdFedFundsrateat5.00-5.25%,markingthefirstbreakafter15monthsofratehikes,byatotalof500bps.MostFedofficialsprojecttwomoreratehikesthisyearamidconcernsoverstickyinflationbutdownsiderisktoeconomicgrowthmightcapratehikes.TheFed’sdecisiontopausethecurrentrate-hikecyclemightbeattributedtorisinguncertaintyovereconomicgrowth.TheFOMCstatementsaidthat“holdingthetargetrangesteadyatthismeetingallowstheCommitteetoassessadditionalinformationanditsimplicationsformonetarypolicy.”ThissuggeststheFedisadoptingawait-and-seestance.DespitetheFed’sprojectionoftwomoreratehikes,thepolicymovesthisyearcouldbelesshawkishthantheFed’slatestprojectionduetothefollowingreasons:(i)TheUSeconomicgrowthislosingsteam.TheISMManufacturingPMIdippedto46.9,fallingfortheseventhmonth,andServicesPMIalsodippedtoa5-monthlowof50.3.(ii)Thelabormarketisshowingsignsofweaknessdespitestill-lowunemploymentrate.Theaverageworkweekforallemployeesfellto34.3hoursinMay,theshortestsincethelaborshockatthestartofthepandemicinApril2020.Sofarthisyear,privatecompanieshavecut417.5kjobs,orby315%YoY,thelargestJanuary-Maytotalsince2020.Withtheexceptionof2020,itisthehighestsince2009.InitialjoblessclaimshavealsorisentoitshighestsinceOctober2021.(iii)Inflationarypressureissoftening.Headlineinflationfelltoanover2-yearlowof4%YoYinMayandcoreinflationeasedto5.3%,thelowestsinceJuly2021.3-and5-yearinflationexpectationeasedto3.0%and2.7%,respectively.Wagegrowthslowedto5.58%YoYinApril,closetopre-Covidlevel.Coupledwithrealpolicyratereversingtopositive,weexpectonlyonemoreratehikeinJulyandtheFedtomaintainratestherestofthisyeartoreducetheriskofaUSrecession. Euro-zone:Given tight labor market conditions, the ECB might maintain policy tighteningdespite lingering risk of a recession KrungsriResearch’sview Euro-zoneeconomyistechnicallyinarecessionsince1Q23andthatislikelytodragonduetothefullimpactoftheECB’smonetarytightening,weakindustrialactivity,andaworseningglobaleconomicoutlook.Inaddition,banklendingremainsveryweakandmightcausemoredownsiderisktoeconomicactivitiesinthesecondhalfoftheyear. In1Q23,Euro-zoneGDPshrankby0.1%QoQ,matchingthe0.1%dropin4Q22andpullingtheunionintoatechnicalrecession.InApril,growthofnewcreditbybankstobusinessesandconsumersslowedto4.6%and2.5%YoY,respectively.GrowthinM3moneysupplyalsodroppedto1.9%,worsethantheanticipated2.1%.Weexpectamildrecessionintheeuro-zoneastightlabormarketconditionsandcheaperenergypriceswouldmitigatetheeconomicdownsiderisksonthehorizon.In1Q23,wagesgrew4.6%YoYfollowingadownward-revised5%growthinthepreviousquarter,markingtheseventhconsecutivequarterofwageincreases.Meanwhile,unemploymentratefellto6.5%inAprilfrom6.7%lastyear,thelowestonrecord.AtitsJunemeeting,theECBraiseddepositrateby0.25%to3.5%andsignaledtherecouldbemoreratehikesattheJulyandSeptembermeetings.Thepressstatementreinforcesahawkishmessage,sayinginterestrates“willbebroughttolevelssufficientlyrestrictive”toachievetheECB’sinflationtarget.Inflationprojectionshavebeenrevisedup.Headlineinflationisnowexpectedtonotch5.4%in2023,3%in2024,and2.2%in2025.Coreinflationisexpectedtoreach5.1%in2023anddropto3.0%in2024and2.3%in2025.TheECBisalsolessoptimisticaboutgrowthinthecomingyears,revisingdownitsGDPgrowthprojectionsby0.1%to0.9%for2023andto1.5%for2024.Takingintoaccountthestronghawkishbiasandthelatestinflationprojections,weexpecttheECBtocontinuetohikeratesuntilitsdepositratereaches3.75or4%. Chinacuts key policy rates in response to less encouraging signs since reopening andweaker external demand; growth could disappoint this year KrungsriResearch’sview China’seconomyhasbeendrivenbytheendofpandemicrestrictionsandreopeningbutthecyclicalrecoverymomentumisweakening.Inaddition,weakglobaldemand,afragilepropertysectoranddomesticstructuralheadwindsmightpreventChinafromregisteringsustainablegrowthintheperiodsahead.Dr