市场展望——2024年6月20日

Market Perspectives June 20, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT July 2024 Corn Futures.......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Significant choppiness in the corn market this week with prices dropping sharply early in the week, thenrebounding prior to the Juneteeth holiday in the U.S., but then moving lower again once tradingresumed after the short holiday break. Weakness in Russian FOB wheat prices is weighing on wheat andgrain markets around the world. From their peak in early June, Russian FOB wheat prices have dropped$20/MT (54.4 cents per bushel). During that same time, Chicago July wheat futures have dropped from ahigh of $7.20 to a recent low of $5.65 per bushel, a drop of $1.55 per bushel. The movement in cornprices has been more muted. Chicago July corn peaked at $4.71 when wheat peaked at $7.20 and therecent low for corn has been $4.38, just 33 cents off of the peak. New crop, December corn futures havehad a move similar to July corn, with a high on May 28thof $4.93 and a recent low of $4.58, a 35-centrange. To date, the market has digested two major supply shocks since early March (drought and frost on theRussian wheat crop, and reduced production out of the primary growing areas of Brazil) and after short-lived rallies the wheat market is back to within 30 cents of where it was in March and corn futures arewithin 10 cents of March prices. So, is demand slipping and mostly offsetting the supply shocks? For coarse grains, world production is projected to be 8.8 MMT greater in 2024/25 than it was in2023/24 and trade in coarse grains is expected to be 8.7 MMT less than 2023/24. For wheat, worldproduction is now expected to be 3.2 MMT greater than 2023/24 but world trade is expected to bedown 6.2 MMT from 2023/24 levels. For oilseeds, despite the production problems in South America,oilseed production is expected to be 29 MMT greater in 2024/25 than in 2023/24 and trade only 7.5MMT greater. The potential build-up in ending stocks is overwhelming the near-term uncertainties thathave accompanied the supply shocks. If one considers just the conditions outside the U.S. coarse grain production is projected to be 20 MMTgreater in 2024/25 than in 2023/24 with trade down 10.2 MMT. Wheat production outside the U.S. isprojected to be up 1.5 MMT this year and trade down 8.3 MMT. Oilseed production outside the U.S. isstill projected to be up 30 MMT despite production problems, and trade only up 7.5 MMT. The netresult is that relative to supply changes, trade demand is slipping and is being reflected in the currentweakness in prices. Potential weather shocks are still a very viable reality for U.S. corn and soybean production this year. Aflash drough