市场展望——2024年9月26日

Market Perspectives September 26, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT December 2024 Corn Futures ............................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 14Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook USDA typically revises its estimate of the prior year’s corn and soybean crops when it releases itsSeptember stocks report. The current estimates are 4.165 billion bushels of soybeans were produced inthe U.S. in 2023 and the trade average estimate for the revised number is 4.164 billion bushels with arange of 4.145 to 4.220 billion bushels. For corn, the current estimate for the 2023 U.S. corn crop is15.342 billion bushels with a trade-average estimate of 15.290 billion bushels and a range of 14.880 to15.394 billion bushels. Trade estimates for U.S. September quarterly grain stocks are 1.844 billion bushels for corn which wouldrepresent a 4-year high and would be up 35.6% from a year ago and above the 1.812 “ending stocks”projected by USDA in its last monthly supply/demand report. The range of analyst estimates is from1.794 billion bushels to 2.090 billion bushels. For soybeans the average estimate is 351 million bushelswhich would also be a 4-year high and would be up 32.9% from a year ago and above the 340 millionbushels, ending stocks projected by USDA in the September 12thWASDE report. The range of analystestimates is from a low of 323 million bushels to a high of 443 million bushels. Final U.S. corn ending stocks in the range of 1.80 to 1.85 billion bushels will likely not be market moving.USDA’s 2023/24 average cash price of $4.65 is aligned with a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.1%. USDA’scurrent 2024/25 season average cash price of $4.10 sits at the low end of “fair value” based on thecurrent balance sheet as it stands today with a 13.7% stocks-to-use ratio. The U.S. corn market is caughtin a struggle between supply tightness and oversupply. U.S. stocks-to-use below 10% correlates tosupply tightness and a need to ration stocks, whereas stocks-to-use above 14% correlates to oversupply. Workers at the grain terminals in Vancouver, British Columbia went on strike this week. This workstoppage could disrupt exports of canola, wheat and barley. In the U.S., the InternationalLongshoreman’s Union representing 45,000 port workers are at an impasse on labor contracts whichcould produce a strike as early as October 1stat eastern U.S. and U.S. Gulf ports. Although the uniondoes not represent Gulf grain elevators, they do represent stevedores which could cause logisticalslowdowns. Negotiations are ongoing but concerns about a pending strike are rising. Harvest weather is mixed in the U.S. for the next 10 days. The Central U.S. forecast is consistent inprojections that tropical storm Helene will reach hurricane status and make landfa