紧凑型城市电气化：美国

BRIEF FOR POLICYMAKERS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS LEAD AUTHORS:Lewis Fulton University of California, DavisDirector, Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (Global)Data Science Manager D. Taylor Reich SUPPORTING AUTHORS: Lindsay A. Dellechaie Institute for Transportation and Development PolicySpecial Assistant to the CEO Farhana Sharmin University of California, DavisGraduate Student Researcher REVIEWERS: Georgetown Climate CenterMitigation Program Director International Council on Clean TransportationSenior Researcher Aaron Isenstadt Benjamin de la Peña Shared-Use Mobility CenterCEO Benito O. Pérez Transportation For AmericaPolicy Director Michael Replogle Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (US)US Adviser PUBLISHEDJANUARY 2024 COVER PHOTO:Columbia Pike TransitStation in Arlington,Virginia.SOURCE:BeyondDC viaFlickr CONTENTS COMPACT CITIES ELECTRIFIED: UNITED STATES 3.1.STRUCTURING THE MODEL3.2.DEFINING SCENARIOS3.2.1.SCENARIOS FOR ELECTRIFICATION RATES3.2.2.SCENARIOS FOR MODE SHIFT RATES 4. SCENARIO COMPATIBILITY WITH US CLIMATE COMMITMENTS16 4.1.US CLIMATE TARGETS4.2.SCENARIO IMPACTS ON TRANSPORT EMISSIONS4.3.MODE SHIFT REDUCES DEPENDENCE ON GRID DECARBONIZATION 5. SCENARIO IMPACTS ON ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION20 7.1.GOALS FOR ELECTRIFICATION7.2.GOALS FOR LAND USE7.3.GOALS FOR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE APPENDIX A: SKETCH POLICY AGENDA 24 I.ELECTRIFY TRANSPORTATION WITH POLICY, INCENTIVES, AND INFRASTRUCTUREII.REFORM LAND USE POLICY, UPDATE ZONING LAWS, INCENTIVIZE SUSTAINABLE,MIXED-USE, TRANSPORT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENTIII.SUPPORT MODE SHIFT BY OPTIMIZING THE USE OF ROAD SPACE WITHWALKING, CYCLING, AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT APPENDIX B: IMAGINING COMPACT CITIES ELECTRIFIED IN THE US27 APPENDIX C: METHODOLOGICAL DOCUMENTATION 28 1. BACKGROUND This study is the culmination of a decade of collaboration in transport modeling between ITDPand the University of California Davis.2Ten years of effort have produced a detailed method forhigh-level modeling of urban and suburban passenger transportation, but this study of the US,along with parallel studies of other countries, are the first time the model has been used topublish analytical results for a single country. Like its predecessor,The Compact City Scenario—Electrified, the current publication comparesthe economic and environmental implications of four scenarios for the future of urbanpassenger transportation: 1) the current trajectory; 2) intensive electrification; 3) intensivemode shift; and 4) the combination of the latter two. But while the previous report focused onthe global need to pursue these strategies, this study describes the specifics of the UnitedStates. In addition to quantifying the emissions that each scenario would entail, we have alsoestimated the quantities and costs—or savings—of infrastructure that would result fromdifferent scenarios for the future of the US. These results provide a “road map” for how thosescenarios might be realized. Although this is the first application of the UC Davis model in particular to the US, it is not thefirst time that transportation modeling has indicated the country’s need for both electrificationand reduced driving to achieve decarbonization goals. The Georgetown Climate Center, forexample, has also shown that “if a substantial portion of [Infrastructure Investment and JobsAct] funding is directed toward highway expansion, emissions increases from induced demandassociated with highway expansion have the potential to reverse the benefits of the low-carbon transportation investments.”3 2. FOUR SCENARIOS Like the global study and parallel reports for other countries, this research investigates fourscenarios for urban passenger transport in the US through 2050. These scenarios arediagrammed in Figure A. We start by understanding these scenarios qualitatively, including asummary of the impacts that they might have outside the scope of our modeling analysis—factors such as public health and economic inclusion. In Section 3 (page 11), we define thesescenarios quantitatively for modeling. BUSINESS AS USUAL (“BAU”) Assumptions: The US continues its current trajectory. Private motorized travel increases slightly,remaining responsible for nearly 90% of urban passenger travel. Electrification isfairly rapid, per the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Qualitative impacts: Increase in traffic fatalities4 High direct public and private costs5Reduced access to opportunities for low-income or historically marginalized peoplewithout cars, leading to increased wealth inequality6Increase in local air pollution, causing many premature deaths and increasedhealthcare costs7Increase in urban highways, dividing neighborhoods and subsidizingenvironmentally unfriendly sprawl8Increase in carbon emissions, leading to climate catastrophe9 ELECTRIFICATION (ONLY) An EVgo chargingstation in a parking lotin Fremont, California.SOURCE:Tada I