银行业的转型风险（英）

Just Transition Risks in the Banking Sector Pietro Calice Finance, Competitiveness and Investment Global DepartmentApril 2025 Policy Research Working Paper11098 Abstract The transition to a net-zero economy presents significantsocial and economic challenges, particularly for industriesand regions reliant on high-carbon activities, hence theneed for a just transition. This paper examines exposure tojust transition risks—a newly introduced category of finan-cial risk defined as social risks driven by climate transitionrisks—in the Polish banking sector. Using a sector- andplace-based methodology, the paper identifies financialexposures to just transition relevant sectors, classified asdeclining (subject to job losses) or transforming (requiringadaptation to lower-carbon processes). Leveraging granularcredit data, the findings show that 17.2 percent of Polishbanks’ financing is exposed to just transition relevant sectors,predominantly in transforming sectors like transportation. Regional analysis reveals that 2.7 percent of total just tran-sition relevant sector credit is concentrated in EuropeanUnion Just Transition Fund–backed regions, where policysupport mitigates some risks, but residual social risks maypersist. Meanwhile, 9.1 percent of total credit is linkedto non–Just Transition Fund regions, where exposure tojust transition risks is potentially higher. Although notconclusive, these findings underscore the need for Polishbanks to integrate just transition considerations into riskmanagement frameworks—enhancing due diligence anddata aggregation capabilities—and engage with affectedstakeholders to mitigate legal and reputational risks whilesupporting a socially equitable climate transition. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Just Transition Risks in the Banking Sector Pietro Calice† JEL Classification Numbers: G28, G29, Q48, Q54 Keywords: just transition; financial stability, financial regulation, climate change. Authors’ E-Mail Address: pcalice@worldbank.org I.Introduction The “just transition” is a defining principle of the European Green Deal, the European Union’s(EU) decarbonization strategy that pledges to leave “no person and no place behind”. Achievingthe ambition of a net zero economy by 2050 will require transformative change across alleconomic sectors, which will also significantly restructure labor markets. While in net termsthe effect of the transition on employment could be neutral or even slightly positive (see, forexample,Eurofound 2019), some jobs will disappear, some will be transformed, and others willbe created. This reshuffling of employment is expected to have major social and economicrepercussions that will be felt unevenly by different sectors and regions. From a sectoral perspective, mining of coal and lignite and the extraction of crude petroleumand natural gas are the sectors that will experience the largest contraction in jobs, while otherssuch as steel, cement, chemicals, and car manufacturing will have to be heavily transformed tobe a part of the net zero economy (European Commission 2018). A key issue is that these“declining” and “transforming” sectors tend to be geographically concentrated withincountries. Regions that are heavily reliant on these sectors for employment and economicgrowth will be disproportionately negatively affected by the transition, suffering heavier joblosses and losing key drivers of their economic growth. To address these distributional consequences, the EU authorities established a dedicatedpolicy tool: the Just Transition Mechanism (JTM). Created as part of the Green Deal, the JTMaims to support those regions most affected by the energy transition through a mix of financingand technical assistance. It is constituted by a dedicated Just Transition Fund (JTF) of €19.2billion—which is expected to mobilize around €25.4 billion in investments in the eligibleregions—complemented by a budgetary guarantee under the InvestEU program and a PublicSector Loan Facility intermediated by the European Investment Bank. These three financingpillars are tied together by the so-called Territorial Just Transition Plans (TJTPs), which areprepared by member states and identify the territories and sectors in which the JTF andcomplementary funding will be used, and the specific actions to be financed. The just transition