具有两端需求压力和美国关税的双重压力的挑战性情况；D/G维持持有。

Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) Challengingsituation with pressure from bothend demand andUStariff; D/G to HOLD Target PriceRMB51.00(Previous TPRMB75.00)Up/Downside3.0%Current PriceRMB49.50 WebelievetheUS’s newly proposedtariffon Chinawill place Dingli intoachallengingsituation, given thattheUS has long been the most important marketfor Dingli(close to 30% of total revenue in 2024E, based on our estimates).Wesee several downsiderisks: (1) the policy uncertainties will likely affect the capexplan of AWP operatorsin the US, thereby affecting theprocurementfor AWPs;(2) the proposed 34% incremental tariff on China’sexportsexceeds the 19%reduction of anti-dumping(AD)duties approved by the US last year. While weunderstand that Dingli willpotentiallyexpand the manufacturing capacity in theUS, we believe itwilltake time to see theactualimpact. We revise down our2024E/25E/26Eearningsforecastby3%/12%/18%,duetolowersalesassumptions in the US and lower gross margin due to tariffs. We now expect only5% earnings growth in 2025E. Downgrade toHOLDfrom Buywith new TP ofRMB51(previously RMB75), based on 12x 2025E P/E. China Capital Goods Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data New tarifftomore than offset the decline inAD duties in theUS.Dingli’sADdutyintheUS was finalized at 12.39%in 2024, down substantially fromthe 31.54% set in 2022.However, the newly proposed tariff on Chinesegoods (34%) exceeds the 19ppt reduction on AD duties. This,together withthecountervailingduties(CVDs)of11.95%and theexistingtariff onChinese goods (20%), adds up to a total of >78% tariffsand duties. Accelerated shipment totheUSto avoid tariff impact. We understandthat Dingli has been accelerating the AWP shipment to the US since earlythis yeartomitigate the impact of upcoming tariffson China.Given the fullconsolidation of CMEC in 3Q24, weexpecttheseAWPs(already in Dingli’swarehouse in the US)will gradually translate into actual sales and revenuein 2Q and 3Q25E. New target multiple to reflect the uncertainties.OurpreviousTP ofRMB75wasbased on18x 2024E P/E(1SD below thehistorical average of31x).Our new TP of RMB51 is based on 12x 2025E, basedon1SD belowthe three-year average P/E (13.5x), as we expect earnings growth to slowsubstantially from previous years. Upside risks:(1)Substantial reduction of proposedtariffson China;(2)stronger-than-expecteddemandinothercountriesthatoffsetstheweakness in the US. Source: FactSet Downsiderisks:(1)Further increase in tariffsin the US; (2)furtherintensified competition in China’sAWP market; (3)continuous weakness ofoverseas demand. Related reports:Capital Goods–Who are the potential beneficiaries of Germany’s megainfrastructure investment plan? 18 Mar2025 (link) Capital Goods–Non-earth-movingmachinery sales data mixed in Feb–17Mar 2025 (link) Capital Goods 2025Outlook: Emergingmarkets the key growth driver; Chinamarket to be stabilized–9 Dec 2024(link) Dingli-Competitive advantage in placewith reduced AD duties in EU–29 Nov2024 (link) Dingli–3Q24 net profit +38% YoY, beatexpectations; US remains the mostpromising market–30 Oct 2024 (link) Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGMestimates Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities andFutures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY :Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champi