中国期货每日简报

China Futures Daily Note 桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要Abstract Macro News:The PBCstated that it will strengthen audit supervision centering on key taskssuch as deepening reforms in the financial field. The MFAresponded to the situation that the U.S.placed Chinese companies on the entity list. Futures Prices:On March 26, 2025, stock index futures had mixed performances, with somerising and some falling, while treasury bond futures all increased. Metal and energy-chemical futuresperformed well, and most agricultural product futures declined. 宏观方面，央行表示围绕金融领域深化改革等重点任务加强审计监督，外交部回应美方将中国公司列入实体清单。 期货方面，2025年3月26日，股指期货涨跌不一，国债期货全部上涨；金属和能化期货表现较好，农产品期货多数下跌。 1.China Futures期货异动 1.1Overview行情概述 On March 26, 2025, themajority of stock index futures fell, while the majority of governmentbond futures rose; most metal futures increased, most energy and chemical futures rose, and mostagricultural product futures declined The top three gainers were apples, SCFIS (Europe), and urea. Specifically, apples rose by 6.5%,with a 29.1% increase in positions compared to the previous period; SCFIS (Europe)increased by2.3%, with a 16.3% decrease in positions compared to the previous period; urea increased by 1.7%,with a 6.2% increase in positions compared to the previous period. The top three losers were natural rubber, soybean meal, and TSR 20. Specifically, natural rubberfell by 1.3%, with a 0.7% decrease in positions compared to the previous period; soybean meal fellby 1.4%, with a 1.2% increase in positions compared to the previous period; TSR 20 fell by 1.6%,with a 6.6% decrease in positions compared to the previous period. 2025年3月26日，股指期货涨跌不一，国债期货全部上涨；金属和能化期货表现较好，农产品期货多数下跌。 涨幅前三的品种是苹果、欧线集运和尿素，其中苹果上涨6.5%，持仓环比增加29.1%；欧线集运上涨2.3%，持仓环比减少16.3%；尿素上涨1.7%，持仓环比增加6.2%。 跌幅前三的品种是天然橡胶、豆粕和20号胶，其中天然橡胶下跌1.3%，持仓环比减少0.7%；豆粕下跌1.4%，持仓环比增加1.2%；20号胶下跌1.6%，持仓环比减少6.6%。 Source: iFind,CITIC Futures 1.2Daily Rise上涨重点品种 1.2.1Copper沪铜 On March 26, 2025, the price ofcopperincreasedby 0.3% to 82,000 yuan/ton. The constraints on coppersupply still exist, and the demand side has marginally rebounded,which provides support for the bottom of the copper price. Considering that the overall expectationsfor copper supply and demand are favorable, it is expected that the copper price is likely to risefurther in the future. From a fundamental perspective, on March 5, Trump stated during the joint session of Congressthat a 25% tariff would be imposed on copper, causing the COMEX copper price to surge significantly.The price spread between COMEX and LME has recently expandedto over $1,400, leading to asubstantial increase in the quantity of copper shipped from non-US regions to the United States. In terms of supply and demand, the raw material supply remains tight. The copper concentrateprocessingcharges have been continuously declining.Copper smelters have carried outmaintenance and production cuts due to the low processing charges, and the risks on the supplyside persist. The production cuts at the smelters owned by Glencore have further intensified thetightness on the supply side. On the demand side, as the peak consumption season approaches,the demand for copper is gradually rebounding. The social inventory of refined copper hassignificantly decreased recently, indicating an improvement in downstream demand. The productionscheduling data of the copper terminal industry is favorable. The production scheduling of airconditioners from January to May 2025 has increased by about 10%. The sales volume ofautomobiles in March, as reported by the China Passenger Car Association, has accelerated.Moreover, after the market-oriented reform of the on-grid electricity price for new energy sources,there may be a rush to install photovoltaic power generation facilities in the first half of the year. 2025年3月26日，沪铜上涨0.3%至82000元/吨。 铜供应约束仍存，需求端边际回升，对铜价底部产生支撑。考虑到铜供需预期总体向好，预计后续铜价有望进一步上移。 从基本面来看，特朗普3月5日在国会联席会议上称将对铜征收25%的关税，comex铜价大幅上涨，COMEX与LME的价差近期扩大到1400美元以上，引发非美地区发往美国的铜数量大幅增加。供需面来看，原料供应依然紧张，铜矿加工费持续回落，铜冶炼厂因加工费偏低而检修减产，供应端风险持续存在，嘉能可旗下冶炼厂的减产加剧了供应端的紧张程度；需求端，消费旺季来临，铜需求逐步回升。精炼铜社会库存近期明显去库，显示下游需求转好。铜终端行业排产数据较好，空调25年1-5月排产增长10%左右，乘联会3月汽车销量增长加快，且新能源上网电价市场化改革后或引发上半年对光伏装机抢装。 Source: iFind,CITIC Futures Source: iFind,CITIC Futures 1.2.2Bitumen沥青 On March 26, 2025,bitumenprices rose by 0.4% to 3,627 yuan/ton, following a 2.0% increaseto 3,629 yuan/ton the previous day. The tight supply of raw materials from (local refineries) offers limited support tobitumenfuturesprices against a backdrop of overcapacity, and Saudi Arabia has the incentive to increase productionduring the escalation of sanctions. Therefore, theupward potential for crude oil andbitumenpricesmay be limited, with attention focused on the key resistance level of 3,700. Recently, the UnitedStates imposed a fourth round of sanctions on Iran, which included sanctions on 19 entities andv