中国期货每日简报

China Futures Daily Note 桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC FuturesInternational Service Platform：https://inst.citicsf.com/en 摘要Abstract On January 22, theSCFIS(Europe) maintained its strong performance, rising by 12.4%, whilesome energy and metals materials saw slight declines, with LSFO dropping by 2.1%. In themacroeconomic context, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC)held a macroeconomic analysis meeting, emphasizing policy adjustments, reform implementation,industrial upgrading, and consumption promotion.China issued guidelines to promote internationalfinancial openness and facilitate the entry of long-term capital into the market. 1月22日，集运维持前日强势表现盘面继续上行，涨幅12.4%；部分能化及金属新材料商品小幅下跌，低硫燃油跌幅-2.1%。 宏观方面，全国政协召开宏观经济形势分析座谈会，提出推动政策调控、改革落地、产业升级和消费提振等举措。证期方面，中国发布推动金融领域国际化开放的意见，并促进中长期资金入市。 1.期货异动ChinaFutures 1.1行情概述Overview On January 22, the SCFIS(Europe) maintained its strong performance, rising by 12.4%, whilesome energy and metals materials saw slight declines. 1月22日，集运维持前日强势表现盘面继续上行，涨幅12.4%；部分能化及金属新材料商品小幅下跌。 Source: iFind, CITIC Futures International Research Source: iFind, CITIC Futures International Research 1.2上涨重点品种Daily Rise 1.2.1欧线集运SCFIS (Europe) On January 22,SCFIS(Europe) 2504 maintained strong performance from yesterday's session,opening higher and consolidating before surging again near the close to finish at a high, with a dailygain of 12.4%. Key factors to watch include tariff expectations and potential ceasefire plans. It isanticipated that the main contract will continue to experience volatility. 1) While President Trump has not yet imposed tariffs, the expectation remains.Trumpplans to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico starting February 1, while also engaging in tariffnegotiations with China. Given the 75-day deadline for TikTok to sell, with tariffs potentially used asa bargaining chip, the 04 contract may continue to be driven by export surge expectations. 2) Long-term contracts show potential for a return to service.Since taking office, Trumphas focused on issues related to Iran and the Middle East, with a ceasefire negotiation expected tobegin in early February, potentially spurring return-to-service expectations for long-term contracts.However, if tensions escalate, the long-term contract may see a correction of its discount. 1月22日，欧线集运2504维持昨日强势盘面表现，高开后震荡整理，临近收盘时再次上涨并收于高位，日涨幅12.4%。 关税预期和停战计划值得关注，预计主力合约继续震荡。1）特朗普未即可征收关税，但预期仍存。特朗普计划于2月1日对加墨征收25%关税，并开展与中国关税谈判；在75天TikTok不卖就禁的法例生效期限、并以关税作为谈判筹码的情况之下，04合约或仍受抢出口预期逻辑推动。2）远月合约存复航预期。特朗普上台后关注伊朗与中东问题，预计2月初启动停火谈判，带来远月复航预期；若冲突加剧，远月合约可能修复贴水。 Source: iFind, CITICFutures International Research Source: iFind, CITIC Futures International Research 1.2.2纸浆Woodpulp OnJanuary 22,Woodpulp 2503 experienced strong upward momentum after a day ofconsolidation, closing at a high with a gain of 1.8%. The post-holiday restocking logic continues to drive upward expectations for the market. 1) The depreciation of the RMB and rising tax prices have limited thedownward trendofthe futures market.While restocking before the Chinese New Year is nearing completion, creatingshort-term bearish pressure, the decline has been restrained by rising import prices and the impactof RMB depreciation, which has pushed up the landed cost of imports, thus limiting further downsidefor the futures market. 2) Looking ahead, March and April are peak demand periods domestically,and therestocking logic following the Chinese New Year aligns with the "Golden March and Silver April"replenishment trend. Therefore, woodpulp futures are expected to show short-term consolidation,but with a bias towards improvement in the future. 1月22日，纸浆2503全天震荡后强势拉升，尾盘收于高位，涨幅达1.8%。 节后补货逻辑带来盘面上行预期。1）人民币贬值与税价上行限制盘面回落。春节前备货趋于收尾，短期形成利空。但在回落过程中，由于进口报价以及人民币贬值的出现，进口完税价的上行，又限制了期货盘面的下行空间。2）远期来看，3~4月是国内需求旺季，春节后会接续金三银四逻辑补货逻辑。因此，纸浆预计短期呈现震荡格局，但未来偏向好转。 Source: iFind, CITIC FuturesInternational Research Source: iFind, CITIC Futures International Research 1.3下跌重点品种Daily Drop 1.3.1低硫燃油LSFO On January 22, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO) 2504 opened lower and traded in a volatile range.It saw a rebound during thesession but then dropped again, closing at a low with a daily decline of-2.1%. The increase in supply and a decline in demand are expected to maintain the market at a lowvaluation. 1) Supply expectations are rising.With domestic refined oil export tax rebates being reducedand UCO export tax rebates canceled, domestic refined oil supply pressure has significantlyincreased, likely spilling over to low-sulfur fuel oil. 2) Demand remains weak.Currently, both supply and demand for low-sulfur fuel oil are weak.On the demand side, it is affected by the overall weakness in refined oil, along with factors such asa decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and high-sulfur alternatives. However,domestic production of low-sulfur fuel oil dropped sharply in November, leading to weaker demandand a passive reduction in supp