库拉索和圣马丁：技术援助报告；金融稳定报告

TECHNICALASSISTANCEREPORT CURAÇAOANDSINT MAARTEN Financial StabilityReport MARCH 2025 PreparedByPetr Jakubik MEMBERS Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands,Cayman Islands, Curaçao, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St.Lucia,St. Maarten,St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands PARTNERS Canada, United Kingdom, European Union, Netherlands, Mexico,USAID,Caribbean Development Bank, EasternCaribbean Central Bank DISCLAIMER Thecontents of this document constitute technicaladviceprovided bythestaff of theInternational MonetaryFund totheCentral Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten(the"CDrecipient") inresponse totheirrequest fortechnical assistance.Thisdocument(inwhole or inpart) or summariesthereof maybedisclosedbytheIMFtothe IMFExecutive Director forCuraçaoand Sint Maarten, to other IMF Executive Directorsandmembers of theirstaff, aswell asto other agenciesorinstrumentalitiesof theCD recipient, andupon their request, to WorldBank staff, andother technicalassistance providers and donorswith legitimateinterestincludingmembers oftheSteering Committeeof CARTAC, unless the CDrecipientspecificallyobjectstosuchdisclosure (seeOperational Guidelines for the Dissemination of Technical Assistance Information). Publication or Disclosure ofthis report(inwhole or inpart) to parties outsidetheIMFotherthanagencies orinstrumentalitiesofthe CDrecipient, WorldBank staff,othertechnicalassistance providers anddonorswithlegitimateinterestincludingmembers oftheSteering CommitteeofCARTACshall requirethe explicit consent oftheCD recipient andtheIMF’sMonetary and Capital Market department. MEMBERS PARTNERS Executive Summary The mission focused on enhancing theCBCS(Central Bank ofCuraçao and Sint Maarten)FinancialStabilityReport (FSR).It reviewed the latest available FSR(2023)and discussed thecomposition of the reportas well astherelatedfinancial stability analyses,assessments,andanalytical toolkit.In particular, the missionhelped theFinancial Stability Division of the CBCStoestimatesectoralcredit risk modelsto enhance the forward-looking element of the FSR. The estimated credit risk modelswillallowthe CBCSto project the impact of different macroeconomicscenarios on banks’ balance sheets.The missionexplainedtheBayesianModel Averaging(BMA)approachasan alternativemethodologyto address model uncertainty. It provided R script with an initial estimate foreightsectoral credit risk models–mortgages to households, personal loans, corporate mortgages, and other corporateloans for both countries-Curaçao and Sint Maarten.Theestimated models allowthe teamto make NPL ratioprojectionsemployingthemacroeconomicforecasting frameworkavailable to the CBCS.Moreover,the missiondiscussed financial stabilityindicators, credit risk,stress testing, insurance & pension economic balance sheetsand corresponding financial stability risks, basic elements of climate risk, interconnectedness and contagion risk. TheCBCShas started publishingthe FSR since2022.The report provides clear and structured messages,containing a macro-financial narrative on key risks and covering developmentsin the real sector. Those factsmake it better quality compared to many peers. It captures the macro-financial developments, banks, insurers,pension funds, interconnectedness, outlook, and policies, providing clear charts presenting the composition of thefinancial system. Apart from key risks and vulnerabilities, it also covers policy initiatives. The external profile isboosted by the Foreword with the key messages from the President. To further enhance the report, themission provided several recommendations to the CBCS.They coveredthe content and structure of the FSR, its related financial stability analytical toolkit and processes, CBCS’s internaland external communication, data sources, and their management. Those outcomes reflect both the structure ofthe organization in the CBCS with respect to the financial stability agenda as well as the composition of thefinancial system in Curaçao and Sint Maartencorresponding to 319% of GDPthat is dominated by commercialbanks (156% of GDP,49% of the total financial system assets [TFA]), but also other segments of the financialsystem are significant–pension fund (105% GDP,33% of TFA) and insurance companies (58% of GDP,18% ofTFA)in 2022. The text of the FSR could be streamlined to avoid repetition and focus on key risk drivers.Nominal valuesreported in the text should be substantially reduced, either replaced by relative indicators or moved to the statisticalannex. The mission statements/themes could be added for each paragraph to help readers navigate throughoutthetext.Thenumberofpagesofthebasictextwithoutannexescouldbesubstantiallyreduced.Theobjective/financial stability definition could be stated at the beginning ofthe report rather than in the policy chapter,and some clarification on super