检修季能否带来转机

2025年04月03日 检修季能否带来转机 观点摘要： [table_research]分析师：王江楠从业资格证号：F03108382投资咨询证号：Z0021543 研究所能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：wangjiangnan@swhysc.com ➢2025年一季度行情回顾：2025年PX期货迎来新年开年红后就一路下行，主因是装置检修的炒作和成本端的坍塌。PTA价格先涨后跌，同比跌幅较大的主因是成本下降。乙二醇港口库存拐点未能到来，价格弱势跌破4400。 ➢后市展望：PX方面，调油季不会掀起波澜，预计价格运行区间为6700-7200元/吨。当下的供需格局较1-2月有边际改善，但改善的程度原不足以拉动价格。4-6月亚洲存在1100万吨以上PX装置存在停车安排，其中国内浙石化、中海油、福海创及福佳均有检修计划，同时恒力及盛虹存在减产预期，检修季会给价格带来底部支撑，但持续的向上驱动仍需要成本端原油的拉涨。相较于一季度，成本的影响力度或许会些微降低，PX自身需求改善带来的提振属于锦上添花并非雪中送炭，价格能否持续反弹还需关注原油的动态。PTA方面，关注原油的变动，预计价格运行区间为4700-5100元/吨。按目前已官宣的检修计划来看，4-6月有部分装置计划检修，二季度大概率不会有PTA新装置投产，PTA供应压力有限。而下游聚酯宣布了减产计划，因为库存难以向下转移。终端新增订单体量有限，对原料采买积极性较低。综合来看，在PTA装置检修的驱动下，二季度库存有望去化。价格上更多跟随成本端震荡运行，关注下游聚酯减产落实情况及原油市场波动。MEG方面，供需结构表现良性，预计价格运行区间为4400-4650元/吨。国内供应来看，装置检修较为集中，扬子巴斯夫、恒力石化、天津中沙、新疆天业、黔希煤化工、榆林化学等装置仍有检修安排。四月国内乙二醇月均负荷将回落至68%附近，国产量收缩明显，但市场在聚酯减产消息的影响下心态承压。价格保持区间震荡的概率较高，港口若能同时表现去化，则反弹有望。短期煤制装置检修逐步落实后部分聚酯工厂存在现货缺口带来去库，长期来看需求转弱以及供应恢复预期依旧形成压制。 风险提示：地缘冲突对原油的冲击、美国关税政策对纺织出口的冲击 目录 （一）行情回顾：装置变动带来提振，但遗憾退场............................................................................................................5（二）装置消息小作文带来扰动...........................................................................................................................................6（三）PXN刷新至近三年低位..............................................................................................................................................8（四）2月份PX或将进入累库局面.....................................................................................................................................9 二、PTA.....................................................................................................................................................................10 （一）行情回顾：二次反弹未果，终受成本拖累..............................................................................................................10（二）加工费空间继续压缩，计划外检修计划频发..........................................................................................................11（三）库存越累越高，供应难调船头.................................................................................................................................13（四）出口环比大幅下跌.....................................................................................................................................................13 （一）行情回顾：反弹后共振下行.....................................................................................................................................14（二）检修计划如期执行，MTO开工下滑明显................................................................................................................15（三）聚酯工厂提货谨慎，港口发货明显下降..................................................................................................................16（四）年底进口有所回升.....................................................................................................................................................17 （一）行情回顾：恢复不及预期.........................................................................................................................................18（二）开工提升空间有限，让利才有产销放量..................................................................................................................19（三）聚酯复产快于终端，形成累库.................................................................................................................................21（四）2024年底出口表现亮眼............................................................................................................................................23 五、纺服消费.................................................................................................................................................................24 （一）纺织内销市场需求恢复缓慢，外贸订单少量下达..................................................................................................24（二）2024年12月有抢出口拉动......................................................................................................................................26（三）英国纺服零售增长最为强势.....................................................................................................................................27 六、后市展望及主要结论...............................................................................................................................................28 图表目录 图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································5图4：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································5图5：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）··········································································································································6图6：PX基差走势（元/吨）·············