成本需求双弱，检修能否带来新变化

2024年05月08日 成本需求双弱，检修能否带来新变化 观点摘要： 分析师：詹建平从业资格证号：F0259856投资咨询证号：Z0002423 研究所能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com 2024年4月行情回顾：国际油价先强后弱，围绕地缘政治来回波动。PX呈M型走势，主因是成本支撑和装置检修。PTA是追随成本的浮萍，价格冲高回落。乙二醇装置集中检修，带动开工负荷明显下滑，下游聚酯需求维持高位，乙二醇供需结构继续改善。 后市展望：PX方面，预计将跟随原油运行，价格区间为8400-8800元/吨。PX供需结构预期是从弱转强，而在下个月PX期货面临首次交割，国内库存高位下，期货货源流入现货市场将对价格形成冲击。同时4月检修的装置也陆续恢复，国内短流程效益大幅压缩，但在歧化效益仍尚可的情况下，也未听闻有工厂计划降负。PTA在5月有多套装置检修，刚需支撑不足，5月去库力度必将减弱。调油逻辑在4月末出现暂停，5月可寄希望于美国出行高峰期，汽油需求存在好转的可能，但幅度绝不及2020-2023年。PTA方面，预计将先强后弱，价格区间为5700-6100元/吨。油价仍有继续向下修复地缘风险溢价的可能性，PX供应宽松的局面下价格难以大幅走高，成本端的支撑只能是相对稳定。从基本面来看，PTA装置检修集中，恒力、虹港、威联化学、嘉兴石化装置都进入检修时段，供应将大幅收缩，不过重启时间多在5月下旬和6月初，时间窗口较短。供应回归后，高库存仍将压制盘面。此外终端开工持续性有待关注，目前聚酯产品库存仍处于偏高水平，关注是否会对聚酯形成负反馈。MEG方面，预计将保持震荡，价格区间为4400-4600元/吨。5月乙二醇基本面延续去库格局，且整体幅度可观。油制装置产出持续压缩，浙石化3#因故推迟重启，卫星石化仍有小幅下降负荷，镇海炼化重启时间暂未明确；煤制装置供应则表现适度增量，5月黔希、寿阳、榆能化学将重启出料。聚酯在4月保持高位开工，对乙二醇隐形库存的消耗有所助力。但5月下半月进口到货偏多，届时会阶段性影响市场心态。若5月显性库存也表现为下降，则市场心态才能提振。 相关报告 20240408《成本定价逻辑运行，装置消息影响盘面》20240408《港口发货水平维持低位，下游备货意向偏低》20240415《成本端变化多端下，价格易涨难跌》20240415《港口库存累积明显，织造开机有下滑趋势》20240422《库存高位是翻不过的大山》20240422《港口短暂去库，基本面稍有改善》 风险提示：地缘爆发重大冲突，美国夏季出现旺季表现不及预期 目录 （一）行情回顾：风险溢价回吐，价格借坡下驴................................................................................................................ 5（二）国内装置短暂检修，海外装置降负明显.................................................................................................................... 6（三）调油逻辑出现又离开，石脑油价格震荡.................................................................................................................... 7（四）年内社会库存持续增加............................................................................................................................................... 9 （一）行情回顾：追随成本的浮萍....................................................................................................................................... 9（二）加工费持续压缩，超长待机装置开启检修.............................................................................................................. 10（三）高库存是制约涨幅的堵点，好在拐点出现.............................................................................................................. 13（四）出口再创新高............................................................................................................................................................. 13 三、MEG....................................................................................................................................................................... 14 （一）行情回顾：进口和装置信息影响价格震荡走低...................................................................................................... 14（二）装置有所复工但不多，利润情况有分化.................................................................................................................. 14（三）港口去库拐点已过，社会库存保持下降.................................................................................................................. 16（四）进口恢复明显，沙特和美国货源增量显著.............................................................................................................. 17 （一）行情回顾：需求季节性调整导致规格间需求差异显著.......................................................................................... 18（二）聚酯开工站上90%，长丝产销下滑明显.................................................................................................................. 19（三）主流工厂推迟让利促销时间节点............................................................................................................................. 21（四）短暂回调后出口恢复增长......................................................................................................................................... 22 五、纺服消费................................................................................................................................................................. 23 （一）坯布价格涨跌互现，户外服饰接棒新中式.............................................................................................................. 23（二）3月纺服出口高基数下同比下滑.............................................................................................................................. 24（三）美国服装和家居零售环比微跌，自中国进口增长.................................................................................................. 25 六、后市展望及主要结论............................................................................................................................................... 26 图表目录 图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）··········································································································································5图4：PX基差走势（元/吨）·················································································································································5图5：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）································································