大豆价格与可持续发展

Soybean prices and sustainability Vivek Voora, Steffany Bermudez, Han Le, Cristina Larrea, and Erika LunaFebruary 2024 Market Overview car” in the 1930s (Patowary, 2022; TheHenry Ford, 2016). Soy production hascontinued to increase inrecent years, though at aslower pace, thanks to theversatility, low cost, andnutritional benefits of the“king of beans”. Today, about 76% of soy production isused as low-cost, quality protein for animalfeed for meat and dairy production, 20%is consumed as edible oils and humanfood products (i.e., tofu, soy milk, andtempeh), and 4% is used for industrialpurposes, primarily in the form of biodiesel(Ritchie, 2021). Soybean cultivation is largelymechanized, and soybeans are grown on vastfields, requiring grain combines to harvest theplant and separate stems and pods from thebean. The harvested beans are then heated,crushed, rolled, and extruded to separate intoedible oil and meal, which is then refinedfor use in a range of diverse products, suchas animal feed, mayonnaise, paint, and fuel(Degnan, 2021). Global demand for soy isrising, propelled largely by consumer interestin animal and plant-based protein options(Fraanje & Garnett, 2020). Expandingsoy cultivation to meet growing demandhas resulted in the loss of vital ecosystems,notably in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado(Chain Reaction Research, 2022; Bicudo DaSilva et al., 2020; Good Growth Partnership, Known as the “king of beans,” soybeansaccount for a large portion of direct andindirect protein consumed around the world.First domesticated in central China 5,000years ago for food and medicinal purposes,soybeans are a leguminous vegetable that hascome to dominate the Americas. Since the1950s, soy production has increased 15-foldand shifted from Asia to the United States,Brazil, and Argentina, which now account for80% of global soybean production (Ritchie,2021). Soy is easy to double crop in the sameseason and is grown due to its versatility,affordability, and nutritional benefits (20%oil and 40% protein content)—so much sothat Henry Ford invested in researching soy-based oils and plastics to create a “soybean production gains in South America aredue to a threefold increase in yields and a200-fold increase in cultivated area sincethe 1960s (Fraanje & Garnett, 2020). Theglobal soybean sector provides employmentfor many people around the world. Soycultivation provides direct employmentfor 280,000 farmers in the United Statesalone, and almost 240,000 Brazilian farmswere producing soybeans in 2016 (BicudoDa Silva et al., 2020; The Soy Hopper,2020). According to the FAO, soybeanproduction grew to 353 million tonnes (Mt)in 2020 from about 231 Mt in 2008 fromcultivating 126 million hectares of soybeans(FAO, 2020). Although soybean productiongrew consistently at a CAGR of 3.6% from2008 to 2020, its CAGR dropped to 2.42%from 2014 to 2020 (FAOSTAT, 2022a).Nevertheless, global soybean productionincreased more than estimated in 2021 toreach 388,098 Mt (FAO, 2023). LIVELIHOODS Soybean cultivation provides direct employmentfor over 280,000 farmers in the United Statesand 240,000 in Brazil. 2020; World Wildlife Fund [WWF], n.d.).Patents for genetically modified (GM) seedshave grown exponentially since the 1980s,with current efforts focusing on developinghigh-yielding and climate-resilient varieties(Hinch, 2022). GM varieties have beencritical for enabling the large-scale expansionof soybean cultivation, as herbicide-resistantvarieties allow farmers to more effectivelyapply pesticides to control weeds and, indoing so, avoid soil tillage. The global soybean sector is worth USD 155billion and is projected to reach USD 278billion by 2031, with a compound annualgrowth rate (CAGR) of 6% (PersistenceMarket Research, 2023). The Food andAgriculture Organization of the UnitedNations (FAO) predicts a sharp rebound inglobal soybean production for the 2022/2023harvest season to record levels, driven bydemand from China linked to expandinglivestock production and replenishingdomestic stockpiles (FAO, 2022). TheBrazilian soybean sector expanded by 60%in the last decade and is forecast to increaseproduction by another 30% by 2030compared to 2020 (Fraanje & Garnett, 2020).Soy production in the United States rose byaround 16% in 2020 from the previous year.Global soy production has surged by 1,200%over the past few decades (FAO, 2022). Between 45% and 49% of soybeanproduction was exported in 2020, providingan important source of foreign exchangerevenue for exporting countries (ForeignAgricultural Service, 2024). Brazil, the UnitedStates, and Argentina have been the largestexporting countries since 2016, exporting86.1 Mt, 53.1 Mt, and 4.3 Mt, respectively,in 2021, while China, the European Union,and Argentina have consistently been the topimporters, importing about 95.5 Mt, 14.6Mt, and 4.9 Mt in 2021, respectively (UnitedNations, 2022). Over the last 5 years, globalsoybean supply and demand have remainedfairly even, with some years experiencingexcess s