格鲁吉亚公正转型社会经济影响评估

MARCH 2025 JUST TRANSITIONSOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTASSESSMENT FOR GEORGIA MARCH 2025 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISBN 978-92-9277-222-2 (print); 978-92-9277-223-9 (PDF); 978-92-9277-224-6 (ebook)Publication Stock No. TCS250081-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS250081-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Acknowledgmentsviii Abbreviationsix Executive Summaryx Overview I.Introduction 1.Georgia’s Climate Action in Context12.Just Transition: A Key Factor in the Success of Climate Action13.Objective of the Assessment34.Scope of the Assessment35.Methodology6 II.Socioeconomic Impact Assessment Findings and Recommendations 12 Activity 1:Construction of the Renewable Energy Power Plants121.Description of Activity12 2.Value Chain Map143.Qualitative Assessment: Identification of Affected Stakeholders and Risks14and Opportunities144.Socioeconomic Variables Selected for the Study165.Summary of the Model Outputs17 Activity 2:Energy Efficiency Reform for the Construction of New Buildings1.Description of Activity 382.Value Chain Map393.Qualitative Assessment: Identification of Affected Stakeholders and Risks39and Opportunities4.Variables Included in the Assessment405.Summary of Model Outputs and Recommendations41 Activity 3:Intercity Bus Passenger Transport Reform581.Scope of Activity58 2.Value Chain Map603.Qualitative Assessment: Identification of Affected Stakeholders, Risks, and Opportunities604.Socioeconomic Variables Analyzed615.Model Outputs and Recommendations61 Conclusion91 Appendixes 92 1.Technical Cards of Socioeconomic Variables922.Assessment of Impact Significance1013.Amendments to the Transport Laws1044.Summary of the Results of the Regulatory Impact Assessment1055.Pre-Assessed Transport Impacts108 Tables, Figures, and Boxes Tables 1Types of Impacts Considered in the Assessment52Severity Assessment Criteria93Likelihood Assessment Criteria94List of Stakeholders105Stakeholder Consultations Throughout the Project116Solar Power Plants in Georgia127Wind Power Plants in Georgia138Hydropower Plants in Georgia139Different Socioeconomic Variables and Their Descriptions1610Summary of Findings, Recommendations, and Impact Significance3511Types of Impact for Each Socioeconomic Variable4012Summary of Findings, Recommendations, and Impact Significance Assessment5613Amendments to Current Regulations in Georgia5914Quantified Impacts of the Intercity Transport Reform6115How Demand in Price Increases Will Be Affected6716How the Current Issues Could Be Improved with Reform6917Possible Impacts of a Ticket Price Increase on the Affected Population Groups7118Data on Transportation Service Providers7719Comparison of Two Baseline Compliance Scenarios7720Inputs and Assumptions to Estimate Compliance Costs for Service Providers7821Cost Estimates for the Baseline Compliance Scenario7922Cost Estimates for the Upgrade Compliance Scenario7923Assumptions for the Calculation of Potentially Affected Informal Workers84in the Vicinity of the Station24Summary of Findings, Recommendat