新能源电价政策对光伏和储能需求影响

Impact of New Energy Pricing Policies on PV and ESS Demand新能源电价政策对光伏和储能需求影响 张默涵Zhang Mohan从业资格号Qualification No：F03097187投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0020317桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC FuturesInternational Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要Abstract On February 9, 2025, NDRCand NEAjointly issuedthe Notice on Further Market-Oriented Reformof New Energy Feed-in Tariffs toPromote High-Quality Development of New Energy(NDRC No. 136).Before the new regulations take effect on June 1, it is expected to drive polysilicon demand and thedemand for materials such ascopper, aluminum, and glass will also be boosted. However, the installedcapacity in the second half of the year will face significant downside risks. Risks:Policy changes, significant volatility in fuel costs, and economic growth. 2025年2月9日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合发布《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促进新能源高质量发展的通知》（发改价格〔2025〕136号）。6月1日新规落地前或出现新能源项目的抢装行为，进而带动多晶硅需求，亦会提振铜、铝、玻璃等材料需求，但下半年装机量将面临显著下行风险。 风险因素：政策变化、燃料成本大幅波动、经济增长 目录Content 1.Rush Installation of New Energy Projects...................................3新能源项目抢装..............................................................31.1The Returns of Existing Projects are Better...............................................3存量项目收益更优.........................................................................31.2Project Rush Installation Brings Polysilicon Demand.......................................5项目抢装利多多晶硅需求...................................................................52.Transformation of the Energy Storage Industry.............................6储能行业转型................................................................62.1Moving Towards Profit-Driven Growth....................................................6走向盈利驱动.............................................................................62.2Beneficial to the Development of Some Regions..........................................9利好部分地区发展.........................................................................9 1.Rush Installation of New Energy Projects新能源项目抢装 1.1The Returns of Existing Projectsare Better 存量项目收益更优 The revenue expectations for existing projects are expected to remain relatively stable.Newenergy projects put into operation before June 1, 2025, are defined asexisting projects. The mechanismelectricity price for existing projects will continue to be implemented at the current price, which shall notexceed the local coal power benchmark price. Within the scale, the proportion of electricity subject to themechanism can be determined annually, but it shall not exceed the previous year. In principle, existingprojects are still encouraged to enhance competitiveness through equipment upgrades and renovations,and to continue participating in market-oriented transactions. Overall, the revenue of existing projects isstill protected by the mechanism electricity price in the short term, and the revenue expectations remainrelatively stable. The decline in electricity prices has dragged down the profit expectations of incrementalprojects, suppressing the willingness to install.New energy projects put into operation after June 1,2025, are defined asincremental projects, and their grid-connected electricity will fully enter the powermarketin principle. The grid-connected electricity price will be formed through market transactions, andnew energy projects can participate in transactions by reporting quantities and prices or accept the pricesformed by the market.Incremental projects also have the mechanism electricity price and price differencesettlement policies, but compared with the existing projects, their "guarantee" characteristics are weaker.Against the backdrop of abundant power supply, the low marginal cost of new energy power generationwill directly suppress electricity prices.Therefore, the increase in new energy market electricity willultimately drag down the profit expectations of projects, suppressing the willingness to install. The differential settlement mechanism is expected to mitigate fluctuations in revenue.Thevolatility of renewable energy generation is significant, with a vast difference in power output betweenday and night for photovoltaic systems,leading to the possibility of negative electricity prices during peakphotovoltaic generation periods in the daytime. The newly introduced differential settlement mechanismwill stabilize the price of electricity included in the mechanism around the mechanism's electricity price,to some extent, playing a role in mitigating the revenue fluctuations of renewable energy projects. The returns of existing projects are better than those of new projects, and there may be a rush toinstall before the new regulations take effect.Overall, the power generation settlement of future newenergy projects will consist of two parts: the market transaction portion and the mechanism settlementportion. The decline in the center of electricity prices will continue to drag