社会服务行业行业周报：育儿补贴有望推出，AI催化服务业变革

Catalog 一、行业重要动态及新闻..........................................................................................................................3二、行业数据........................................................................................................................................4（一）社零：12月社零增速环比提升，商品零售表现较优...............................................................................4（二）免税：3月首周海南出行低迷，进港客流量持续下降..............................................................................5（三）酒店：核心指标承压趋势不变，高线城市OCC增速转正.......................................................................5（四）博彩：1-2月GGR平稳略增，2月节后长尾效应明显.............................................................................7三、行业要闻........................................................................................................................................9（一）免税/旅游零售.................................................................................................................................9（二）酒店...............................................................................................................................................9（三）餐饮...............................................................................................................................................9（四）旅游.............................................................................................................................................10（五）教育.............................................................................................................................................10四、市场行情.......................................................................................................................................12（一）市场整体.......................................................................................................................................12（二）个股行情.......................................................................................................................................12五、重点覆盖股票盈利预测与估值............................................................................................................13六、风险提示.......................................................................................................................................14 据 酒 店 之 家 数 据，3.2当 周，国 内 一 线/新 一 线/二 线 城 市OCC分 别 为69.5%/64.9%/58.5%，同比+1.4pct/+0.1pct/-0.5pct；ADR分别为266.5元/184.1元/174.7元每间，同比-3.2pct/-2.6pct/-1.6pct。 据 酒 店 之 家 数 据，3.2当 周，国 内 豪 华 型/高 档 型/中 档 型 酒 店OCC分 别 为46.1%/46.7%/53.6%，同 比+1.3pct/-0.8pct/-1.6pct；ADR分 别 为662.0元/317.6元/216.7元 每 间 ， 同 比-5.3pct/-4.5pct/-4.8pct。 资料来源：DICJ，DSEC，中国银河证券研究院 资料来源：DICJ，中国银河证券研究院 图1：社零总额当月同比..............................................................................................................................4图2：除汽车外社零总额当月同比.................................................................................................................4图3：网上&线下商品和服务零售额当月同比..................................................................................................4图4：网上&线下商品和服务零售累计同比......................................................................................................4图5：社零：商品零售&餐饮收入当月同比......................................................................................................5图6：社零：商品零售&餐饮收入累计同比......................................................................................................5图7：海口美兰机场运送旅客量及同比增速.....................................................................................................5图8：三亚凤凰机场进港旅客量及同比增速.....................................................................................................5图9：中国大陆整体酒店OCC&ADR涨幅......................................................................................................5图10：中国大陆整体酒店RevPAR涨幅.........................................................................................................5图11：中国二线及以上城市OCC涨幅...........................................................................................................6图12：中国二线及以上城市ADR涨幅...........................................................................................................6图13：中国三线及以下城市OCC涨幅...........................................................................................................6图14：中国三线及以下城市ADR涨幅...........................................................................................................6图15：中国中高端酒店OCC涨幅.................................................................................................................7图16：中国中高端酒店ADR涨幅.................................................................................................................7图17：中国经济型OCC涨幅.......................................................................................................................7图18：中国经济型ADR涨幅.......................................................................................................................7图19：澳门博彩毛收入当月值及恢复率.................................................................