The Gambia: Technical Assistance Report-Climate Policy Diagnostic

Climate Policy Diagnostic JULY2024 Prepared By Dora Benedek,Alberto Garcia Huitron, Danielle Minnett, Junko Mochizuki, and Alice TianboZhang Fiscal Affairs Department The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the InternationalMonetary Fund to the authorities of The Gambia (the "CD recipient") in response to their request fortechnical assistance. Unless the CD recipient specifically objects to such disclosure, this document (inwhole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to the IMF Executive Director for TheGambia, to other IMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to other agencies orinstrumentalities of the CD recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff, and other technicalassistance providers and donors with legitimate interest (see Staff Operational Guidance on theDissemination of Capacity Development Information). Publication or Disclosure of this report (in whole orin part) to parties outside the IMF other than agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, World Bankstaff, other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest shall require the explicitconsent of the CD recipient and the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are those of the IMF Fiscal AffairsDepartment. Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations ______________________________________________________6 A. Coastal Resilience and Management_______________________________________________18B. Land Management _____________________________________________________________21C. Water Sector Policy ____________________________________________________________23D. Agriculture ___________________________________________________________________29E. Disaster Risk Management, Disaster Risk Financing, and Social Protection ________________32 A. GHG Emissions and Emissions Reduction Targets in The Gambia _______________________37B. Agriculture and Livestock ________________________________________________________39C. Forestry______________________________________________________________________41D. Waste Management ____________________________________________________________46E. Power Sector _________________________________________________________________49F. Cross Cutting Policies: Carbon Pricing Options _______________________________________54 A. Considerations for an Efficient Institutional and Legal Framework ________________________63B. Assessment of the Current Institutional and Legal Framework ___________________________65C. Assessment of Policy Gaps ______________________________________________________70 Boxes1. Rationale for Government Intervention in Climate Adaptation ____________________________21 2. Alternative Approaches to Price Water ______________________________________________27 3. Bundling of Risk Management, Credit, and Agronomical Knowledge/Inputs to Foster Climate Resilience 4. Development of Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) _____________________________________36 5. Challenges and Opportunities for Community Forest Management (CFM) __________________43 Figures 1. Digital Elevation Map of The Gambia and the Greater Banjul Area ________________________12 2. The Gambia’s Historical Climatology – Temperature (left) and Precipitation (right)____________12 4. Projected Sea Level Rise in The Gambia ____________________________________________13 5. Map of Coastal Inundation Risk for the Greater Banjul Area _____________________________14 6. Inundated Area from SLR in Selected Regions of The Gambia ___________________________147. Estimated Cost of Sea Level Rise – No Adaptation ____________________________________158. Distribution of Natural Disasters in The Gambia, 1950-2024 _____________________________159. The Gambia’s Projected Climatology – Temperature (top) and Precipitation (bottom) _________1610. Indicative Timescales of Coastal Risk Management Measures __________________________2011. Land Use and Land Cover Classification in The Gambia _______________________________2212. The Gambia’s Water Body and Regions Prone to Permanent and Seasonal Salinity _________2513. Area Harvested and Yield of Cereal _______________________________________________3114. Disaster Risk Financing Instruments in The Gambia __________________________________3415a. Emissions per Capita, 2020 ____________________________________________________3715b. Emissions Intensity of GDP, 2020 _______________________________________________3716a. GHG Emissions in The Gambia by Sector and Subsector, 2019 ________________________3816b. Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in The Gambia by Fuel, 2019 _________________________3816c. GHG Emissions in The Gambia, by Gas, 2019 _____________________________________3817. IMF Estimates of Historical and Projected Emissions in The Gambia, Relative to NDC _______3918. Interaction Between Agricultural and Forestry Sectors for Land Use__________