Republic of Tajikistan: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment with the Climate Module

REPUBLIC OFTAJIKISTAN Public Investment Management Assessmentwith the Climate Module JUNE 2024 Prepared ByBryn Battersby, Imran Aziz, Thomas Ekeli, David Gentry, Ian Hawkesworth, Anjum Israr(ADB), Gregory Kisunko (World Bank), and Joe Taylor Fiscal Affairs Department The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the InternationalMonetary Fund to the authorities ofthe Republic of Tajikistan(the“CD recipient”) in response to theirrequest for technical assistance. Unless the CD recipient specifically objects to such disclosure, thisdocument (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to the IMF ExecutiveDirector forthe Republic of Tajikistan, to other IMF Executive Directors and members of their staff,as wellas to other agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff,and other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest, andmembers of the SteeringCommittee ofThe Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center(seeStaff Operational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Publication orDisclosure of this report (in whole or in part) to parties outside the IMF other than agencies orinstrumentalities of the CD recipient, World Bank staff, other technical assistance providers and donorswith legitimate interest, andmembers of the Steering Committee ofThe Caucasus, Central Asia, andMongolia Regional Capacity Development Centershall require the explicit consent of the CD recipientand the IMF’sFiscal Affairs Department. This technical assistance (TA) wasprovided with financial support from the Government of Japan. Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms_________________________________________________________6 Executive Summary_________________________________________________________________8 Recommendations_________________________________________________________________13 I. Public Investment in Tajikistan_____________________________________________________15 A. Public Investment, Capital Stock and Fiscal Policy_______________________________________15B. Composition and Financing of Public Investment________________________________________20 II. The Efficiency of Public Investment_________________________________________________22 III. Public Investment Management Assessment_________________________________________25 A. The PIMA Framework______________________________________________________________25B. Overall Assessment_______________________________________________________________26C. Investment Planning_______________________________________________________________28D. Investment Allocation______________________________________________________________41E. Investment Implementation_________________________________________________________49 IV. The Climate PIMA_______________________________________________________________57 A. Climate Change and Public Infrastructure______________________________________________57B. Climate Change Objectives and Strategy_______________________________________________59C. Climate PIMA Framework___________________________________________________________63D. Detailed Assessment______________________________________________________________64 A. Legal and Regulatory Framework____________________________________________________71B. Information Technology____________________________________________________________71C. Capacity________________________________________________________________________72 Boxes 1. The Rogun Hydropower Plant________________________________________________________17 2. Roles of the Main Actors in the Public Investment Management Process______________________35 3. How to Tailor Project Appraisal to the sSize of the Project_________________________________38 4. A Simple Method to Estimate the Aggregate Need for Maintenance Spending__________________46 6. Project Implementation Plans________________________________________________________54 7. Measures in the NDC Implementation Plan_____________________________________________62 8. Government of the Republic of Tajikistan Analysis of Capacity and Capability in the Context of NDCDelivery___________________________________________________________________________65 9. Incorporation of Climate into PPP Contracting and Operation.______________________________6710. Importance and Approach to Assessing Infrastructure Exposure to Climate-Related Disaster Risks 69 Figures 1.Tajikistan PIMA: Institutional Design and Effectiveness_____________________________________92. Tajikistan C-PIMA: Institutional Design_________________________________________________103. GDP per capita in Tajikistan and Comparable Countries___________________________________154. Public Investment and Capital Stock__________________________________________________165. Fiscal Deficit and Debt______________________________________________________