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Chile: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

2025-02-05 国际货币基金组织 Silent

Chile's economy is broadly balanced, with real GDP expected to grow around its potential in 2025, supported by the recovery of domestic demand and continued growth in mining exports. However, the recovery has been uneven across industries, with the construction sector lagging and the unemployment rate remaining high. Inflation is projected to return to the 3% target in early 2026, after the impact of the significant electricity tariff hikes between June 2024 and early 2025 subsides. The current account deficit has continued to narrow and is projected to reach around 2.5% of GDP in 2024 and 2025. External risks and uncertainty remain elevated, including copper price volatility, prolonged high long-term interest rates in the U.S., and climate change. Domestically, concerns about crime, immigration, and inequality persist, while political polarization may further impede progress on much-needed structural reforms. Policies have supported macroeconomic stability, with the Central Bank of Chile lowering its policy rate by 325 basis points since January 2024 to 5% in December 2024, and the headline fiscal deficit is projected to reach 2.7% of GDP in 2024. The 2025 budget envisions a notable deficit reduction within a medium-term fiscal plan toward a broadly balanced fiscal position by 2027. The proposed new development bank requires a targeted mandate, sound risk management practices, and robust corporate governance. A pension reform is critical to ensure adequate self-financed pensions and reduce future fiscal costs, with key elements including raising contribution rates, improving coverage for self-employed and unemployed workers, and targeting the minimum guaranteed pension to the most vulnerable elderly. A cautious data dependent approach to the pace of future monetary policy rate cuts is warranted, with the real monetary policy rate close to its estimated neutral range. Rebuilding international reserve buffers is important for enhancing resilience, with gross international reserves declining slightly in 2024. The financial system remains resilient, despite greater risks related to the real estate sector and lower financial market depth. Banks are well-capitalized and maintain sufficient liquidity, with loans adequately provisioned and collateralized to withstand shocks. However, supervisors need to carefully monitor banks and insurers' portfolio quality and buffers, including by closing commercial real estate data gaps and enhancing stress test models.

2024ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;ANDSTAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2024Article IV consultation withChile, the following documents have been released and are included inthis package: •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration ona lapse-of-time basis,following discussions that ended onNovember22,2024,with the officials ofChileon economic developments andpolicies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staffreport was completed onJanuary16, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •AStaff Supplementupdatinginformation on recent developments. The documentslisted below havebeenor will beseparately released. •Selected Issues. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of theauthorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.orgPrice: $18.00per printed copy International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultationwith Chile FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Washington, DC – February 5, 2025:The Executive Board of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1with Chile on February 3, 2025 andendorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.2 The economy’s imbalances have been largely resolved. Real GDP is expected to expand by2.2 percent in 2024, close to its potential pace, driven by the strong mining and serviceexports, and 2-2.5 percent in 2025, related to an expected recovery in domestic demand.However, the recovery has been uneven across industries, with the construction sectorlagging and the unemployment rate remaining high. Inflation is set to return to the 3-percenttarget in early 2026, after the impact of the significant increase in electricity tariffs betweenJune 2024 and early 2025 subsides. The current account deficit has continued to narrow andis projected to reach around 2½ percent of GDP in 2024 and 2025. External risks and uncertainty remain elevated. The commodity price volatility linked to theeconomic outlook of Chile’s main trading partners and the pace of the global green transitionis a key external risk. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding monetary and fiscal policies inadvanced economies could lead to tight financial conditions for longer periods of time andhigher financial volatility. Domestically, concerns about crime, migration, and inequalitypersist; and political polarization is hindering the structural reform progress. Policies have supported macroeconomic stability. The Central Bank of Chile lowered themonetary policy rate by 325 basis points since January 2024 to 5 percent in December 2024.The headline fiscal deficit is projected to reach 2.7 percent of GDP in 2024 due to a notablerevenue underperformance and despite significant spending restraint compared to the budget.The 2025 budget envisions a notable deficit reduction within a medium-term fiscal plan towarda broadly balanced fiscal position by 2027. By setting the neutral level of the countercyclicalcapital buffer at 1 percent of risk-weighted assets with a gradual and state-contingentimplementation path from the current level of 0.5 percent, the Central Bank of Chile hasprovided banks with planning certainty for strengthening financial resilience. Executive Board Assessment The economy is broadly balanced but external risks are elevated.Chile’s macroeconomicposition is sound due to its very strong fundamentals, policies, and policy frameworks. RealGDP is growing around its potential and inflation is expected to reach the 3-percent target inearly 2026. The current account deficit has continued to narrow, and the 2024 externalposition is assessed as moderately weaker than implied by medium-term fundamentals. Publicdebt is still relatively low and sustainable with high probability. However, the externalenvironment is unstable and uncertain, which calls for policies that further strengtheneconomic buffers to provide additional policy space for future shocks. Lifting Chile’s growth potential is a must to raise living standards and tackle social andfiscal pressures.Taking a consultative approach, the government is advancing severalgrowth initiatives, including: (i) expediting investment permit applications and environmentalevaluations to encourage investment, (ii) fostering the development of emerging industries,particularly those related to renewable energy to maximize the benefits from the global greentransition, and (iii) facilitating R&D. Swift and consistent implementati

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