稳定分红为基，业务多元驱动
稳定分红为基，业务多元驱动 港股通（沪、深） 公司评级增持（首次） 报告日期2025年02月18日 投资要点： ⚫开发业务重仓上海，预计2025年起上海金陵华庭可贡献现金流：公司物业销售业务深耕中国内地核心一二线城市，以高端豪宅产品为主。2021~2023年期间在上海拿地累计权益土地款达245亿元，其中上海黄浦区金陵路综合体项目的住宅部分定名“金陵华庭”，预计2025年内开盘，我们预计该项目可为公司贡献充沛的现金净流入。 ⚫预计2030年末公司持有投资物业及酒店应占GFA约为2024H1的1.59倍：公司持有投资物业布局于香港、北京、上海、深圳、杭州等核心一二线城市，租金收入稳健，抗周期性强。2024H1，公司实现合并物业租赁收入26亿港元，仅同比下滑2.8%。根据公司项目管道，截至2030年末公司的投资物业及酒店的应占GFA将较2024H1增长59%至2962万平方呎；其中上海投资物业也将较2024H1增长146%至799万平方呎，核心城市的优质投资物业将为公司收入增长带来动力。 相关研究 【兴证海外地产】嘉里建设(00683.HK)2024中期业绩点评：香港住宅销售回暖，内地租金收入稳健-2024.08.23 分析师：宋健S0190518010002BMV912songjian@xyzq.com.cn ⚫重视股东回报，派息绝对值稳定：2017~2023年期间，公司维持经常性每股派息1.35港元；2024H1，在多家港资房企下调每股派息的行业背景下，公司仍保持中期每股派息0.40港元，同比持平。 分析师：孙钟涟S0190521080001请注意:孙钟涟并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管的活动。sunzhonglian@xyzq.com.cn ⚫净负债率预计2025年内回落：2013~2021年期间，公司长期保持30%以下的净负债率，2022年起公司因投资上海黄埔综合体项目净负债率逐年提升，截至2024H1公司净负债率为40.9%。我们预计随着2025年上海金陵华庭实现销售现金回流，公司净负债率有望于2025年实现回落。截至2024H1，公司平均融资成本为4.6%；因港币债务仍占到总有息负债的72%，随着公司将部分港币负债置换为融资成本更低的人民币负债，预计公司平均融资成本仍有下降空间。 ⚫首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级：若上海金陵华庭推盘节奏以及销售符合预期，预计2025年内公司可回流现金缓解资金压力，保障现金流的安全性和派息的稳定性，净负债率也有望随之下降。我们预计公司2024/2025/2026每年可维持每股派息1.35港元。2025年2月18日收盘价对应2024/2025/2026年PE为7.4/6.8/5.7倍，对应2024/2025/2026年股息收益率为8.8%/8.8%/8.8%。首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级。 ⚫风险提示：派息不及预期；新房销售不及预期；投资物业出租率、租金表现不及预期。 Kerry Properties（00683.HK）Stock Connect (SH/SZ)StableDividends as the Foundation,Driven by Business Diversification Report DateFebruary18,2025 Investment Highlights: ⚫DPfocuses onShanghai and“Jinling Huating”is expected tocontribute cashflow starting from 2025:The company's property sales business is deeply rooted inthefirst and secondtier cities in mainland China, mainly featuring high-end luxuryhousing products. From 2021 to 2023, the cumulativeattributableland costs forShanghailandbankreached 24.5 billionRMB. The residential part of the Jinling Roadcomplex project in Huangpu District, Shanghai, is named“Jinling Huating”, which isexpectedpresalein 2025. We expect this project to bring substantial net cash inflowsto the company. Related Report KerryProperties(00683.HK)2024Interim Results Review: Revival in HongKong Residential Sales, Steady RentalIncome in Mainland China-2024.08.23 ⚫By the end of 2030, the company's attributable GFA of investment propertiesand hotels will be approximately 1.59 times that of H12024:The company'sinvestment properties are located in core first-and second-tier cities such as HongKong, Beijing,Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, with stable rental income andstrong anti-cyclicality. In H12024, the company achieved consolidated property rentalincome of HK$2.6 billion,with-2.8%yoy. According to the company's project pipeline,by the end of 2030, the attributable GFA of the company's investment properties andhotels will increase by 59% compared to H1 2024, reaching 29.62 million square feet.Among them, the investment properties inShanghai will also increase by 146%compared to H1 2024, reaching 7.99 million square feet. High-quality investmentproperties in core cities will drive the company's revenue growth. Analyst：Jian SongS0190518010002BMV912songjian@xyzq.com.cn Analyst：Zhonglian SunS0190521080001Notice: Zhonglian Sun is notlicenseholders registered at the Securities andFutures Commission (SFC), and is notallowed to engage in regulated activitiesin Hong Kong.sunzhonglian@xyzq.com.cn ⚫Emphasis on shareholder returns with stable DPS:From 2017 to 2023, thecompany maintained a regularDPSof HK$1.35. In H12024, against the backdrop ofmanypeersreducing theirDPS, the company stilldistributeinterimDPSof HK$0.40,remaining the same as the previous year. ⚫Gearingratio expected to decline in 2025:From 2013 to 2021, the company’sgearingratiokeepsless than 30%. Since 2022, due to the investment in the Huangpucomplex project in Shanghai, the company'sgearing ratio has increased. As ofH12024, the company'sgearingratio is 40.9%.Asthe cashcollectionfrom sales of“Jinling Huating”, the company'sgearingratio isexpectedto declinein2025. As ofH12024, the company'sweightedaverage financing cost is 4.6%. SinceHKDdebt stillaccounts for 72% of the total debt,replacingHKDdebt with lower financing costRMBdebtwill help lowertheweightedaverage financing cost. ⚫Initiating coveragewith“Outperform”:If the salesprogressof“Jinling Huating”meet expectations, the company can alleviatethe financial pressure, ensurethe safetyof cash flow and the stability of dividend, and thegearingratio is also expected todecline. We expect the company's2024/2025/2026DPSis 1.35/1.35/1.35 HKD. Theclosing price on February 18, 2025, corresponds to2024/2025/2026PE 7.4/6.8/5.7x,and dividend yield of 8.8%/8.8%/8.8%.We initiatecoveragewith“Outperform”. ⚫Potential risks：Lower-than-expected dividends; Lower-than-expected property sales;Lower-than-expectedoccupancy rate and rentalreversion. 目录 一、公司基本情况..........................................................................................5二、开发业务：核心城市优质项目支撑销售.................................................7三、投资物业：创造稳健的现金流................................
