2030年零排放车辆强制计划报告

2030 ZEV Mandate Plan PREPARED FOR EUROPEAN CLIMATE FOUNDATION22NDNOVEMBER 2024 Sustainability is our business © Copyright 2024 by The ERM International Group Limited and/or its affiliates (‘ERM’). All rights reserved. No part ofthiswork may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without prior written permission of ERM. About the authors Founded in 1971,ERMare the largest advisory firm in theworld focusing solely on sustainability, offering unparalleleddepth and breadth of expertise. We shape a sustainable future with the world’s leadingorganizations Our purpose guides everything we do. We create a betterfuture by helping the world’s biggest brands address today’ssustainability imperatives. Partner-in-Charge:CelineCluzel, Partner We are the recognized market leader in sustainabilityservices Project Director:Richard Riley, Consulting Director Project Manager:JacobDalder, Managing Consultant Numerous industry benchmarks attest to our marketleadership andthe majority ofour work is sole-sourced,reflecting trusted partnerships we build with our clients. Policy Modelling Lead and Project Delivery:Robert Pearce-Higgins, Senior Consultant Project Analyst:Natasha Harland, Consultant This study uses data derived from publicly available sources and incorporatesindependent modelling and analysis performed by ERM. Policy modelling inputs andassumptions have been approved by the European Climate Foundation. Glossary of acronyms used in the report LEVI–Local Electric Vehicle Infrastructure [fund]NEVIS–National EV Insight & Support [tool/knowledge repository]OEM–Original equipment manufacturer (e.g., Volvo, Ford, etc.)ORCS–On-street Residential Charge point SchemeOZEV–Office for Zero Emission VehiclesPHEV–Plug-in hybrid electric vehicleRCF–Rapid Charging FundSoC–State of chargeSTB–Sub-national transport bodyTCO–Total cost of ownershipTfN–Transport for the NorthWLTP–Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test ProcedureVED–Vehicle Excise DutyZEV–Zero-emission vehicle AFIR–Alternative Fuels Infrastructure RegulationBEV–Battery electric vehicleBiK–Benefit-in-kindCA–Combined AuthorityCLTC–China Light-Duty Vehicle Test CycleCPO–Charge point operatorDfT–Department for TransportEU–European UnionEV–Electric vehicleEVCP–Electric vehicle charge pointEVSE–Electric vehicle supply equipmentICEV/ICE–Internal combustion engine [vehicle] (i.e., petrol or dieselvehicle)ITT–Invitation to tenderLA–Local Authority Contents Executive summary Real world deliveryIntroduction and contextIntroduction and contextAssessment of barriers to BEV adoption in the UKAssessment of barriers to BEV adoption in the UKAnalysis of policy options/actions to enable acceleration of BEV adoptionAnalysis of policy options/actions to enable acceleration of BEV adoptionRecommendations and conclusionsRecommendations and conclusionsAppendixAppendix Reducing the barriers to BEV purchase that UK consumers face could both support thecurrent ZEV mandate and ensure it is compatible with a just transition Background:The UK’s planned ban on the sale of petrol and diesel internal combustion engine (ICE) cars by 2030 was replaced in 2024 by thezero- emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, a law which requires 80% of new car sales to be ZEVs by 2030. Despite the UK’s charging infrastructurerollout and the decreasing costs of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the sales share of BEVs in the UK has not increased over the last two andhalf years. Because of this, and in the context of the Labour parties’ stated intention of “restoring the phase-out date of 2030for new cars withinternal combustion engines”1, additional policy and government actions are necessary to accelerate BEV uptake to support the ZEV mandate.Furthermore, without additional intervention, the BEV transition will impact consumer groups differently, so a focus on equity is needed toensure lower income groups are not left behind. Approach:First, recent surveys of UK consumers and industry manifestos were analysed to understand the most significant barriers, whetherreal or perceived, that inhibit BEV car purchase decisions. Next, a range of fiscal policies were analysed (and modelled where possible)to characterisetheir costs to government and impacts on accelerating new BEV sales. In parallel, interviews were conducted involving variedstakeholders(from local authorities (LAs) to charge point operators (CPOs)) involved with the Local EV Infrastructure (LEVI) Fund and theRapid ChargingFund (RCF) to understand how these funds might be adjusted to maximise their impact. Other non-cost actions were evaluated to accompanyany fund adjustments. The policy/actions analysis was brought together as a recommended policy package for government implementation. Barriers to BEV adoption in the UK:UK consumer opinion surveys and manifestos produced by industry groups were reviewed to identify the most common barriers consumers face thatdiscourage BEV adoption. Some of the identified barriers are real/ba