Africa in the New Trade Environment

Market Access in Troubled Times Souleymane Coulibaly, Woubet Kassa, and Albert G. Zeufack, Editors Africa in the New Trade Environment Africa in the New Trade EnvironmentMarket Access in Troubled Times Souleymane Coulibaly, Woubet Kassa,and Albert G. Zeufack, Editors Some rights reserved 1 2 3 425 24 23 22 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarilyreflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governmentsthey represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, orcurrency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for anyerrors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use ofor failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth.The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legalstatus of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specificallyreserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the CreativeCommons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt thiswork, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Coulibaly, Souleymane, Woubet Kassa, andAlbert G. Zeufack, eds. 2022.Africa in the New Trade Environment: Market Access inTroubled Times.Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1756-4.License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimeralong with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank andshould not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not beliable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimeralong with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank.Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the authoror authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of thecontent contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that theuse of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work willnot infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from suchinfringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it isyour responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and toobtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, butare not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-1756-4ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1757-1DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1756-4 Cover design:Melina Yingling, World Bank. Contents Forewordxvii Acknowledgmentsxxi About the Contributorsxxiii Abbreviationsxxix OVERVIEWMarket Access Strategy in a NewTrade Environment1Souleymane Coulibaly, Woubet Kassa,and Albert G. Zeufack Notes27 References28 PART IAccess to Traditional Markets: Taking Stock ofNonreciprocal Trade Agreements and theWay Forward33 1Trade Impact of theAGOA: An AggregatePerspective35Souleymane Coulibaly and Woubet Kassa Introduction35The African Growth and Opportunity Act37Trade Flows from Sub-Saharan Africa to the United States41Impact of the AGOA: Results from the Synthetic Control Method43Main Drivers of Exports under the AGOA55Conclusion62Annex 1A The Synthetic Control Method64Notes65References66 2Preferential Access to the United Statesand Manufacturing Export Performance:A Product-Level Analysis69Ana M. Fernandes, Hibret Maemir, AadityaMattoo, and Alejandro Forero Rojas Introduction69A Product-Level Perspective from Disaggregated Export Data71US Trade Preferences: The GSP and AGOA73African Export Performance and the Role of the AGOA80Estimated Impacts of the AGOA and GSP LDC90Conclusion96Annex 2A WITS Sectoral Definition, Sub-Saharan Africa Data,and Commodity Prices97Annex 2B Impacts of the AGOA on Exports and Export Patterns100Annex 2C AGOA Impacts, by Country106Notes107References109 111 Introduction111Estimations of the Trade Impacts of the AGOA and EBA114ECOWAS Expo