气候过渡政策与地缘经济碎片化之间的交叉-国际关系委员会网络关于气候变化的报告

The intersection between climatetransition policies and geoeconomicfragmentation Pierre-François Weber,Amandine Afota,Maria-Grazia Attinasi,Lukas Boeckelmann,Axel Brueggemann, Annabelle de Gaye,Alistair Dieppe,Violaine Faubert, Fabio Grieco,Julien Le Roux, Baptiste Meunier,BogdanMunteanu,Capucine Nobletz,Anni Norring,Thomas Reininger,Ieva Skackauskaite,Marta Suárez-Varela,Romain Svartzman,Cécile Valadier, Diana Vlajie,Lucia Wilbert, Andrea Zaghini A report of the International RelationsCommittee Network on climate change Disclaimer:This publicationshould not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank(ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and donot necessarily reflect those of the ECB. Contents Abstract2Executive summary31Uncoordinated climate policies can increase GEF51.1Transition policies are historically uncoordinated and appearincreasingly uncooperative5Box 1Brief overview of climate transition policies61.2Climate transition policies entail international spillovers whichcould lead to frictions and geoeconomic fragmentation8Box 2International trade spillovers, reallocation of polluting industriesand the EU CBAM9Box 3The international impact of the US IRA102GEF can hinder the pace and scope of climate policies132.1GEF could disrupt the supply of critical raw materials essential tothe energy transition13Box 4The EU transition strategy and GEF risks142.2GEF can compound biases in the allocation of financing forsustainable investments173Avenues for further research to deepen our understanding of theinterplay between GEF and transition policies193.1On the need to improve the existing tools to model climatetransition policies193.2On the need to account for structural changes in globalproduction structures214References23 Abstract Two phenomenaare increasingly reshapingthe world economy. One is the growingand well-documented importance of climate transition policies that differ acrosscountries. The other is the stark rise ofgeoeconomicfragmentation (GEF) concerns.While differences in climate transition policies are not new, they could amplify GEF,which is a new, growing risk. Conceptually, GEF is a policy-driven reversal of globaleconomic integration, guided by strategic considerations such as national security,sovereignty,autonomy,or economic rivalry. It does not include reversals to globaleconomic integration that are driven by autonomous change, such as shifts intechnology, demographics or preferences, or policies motivated primarily byprudential or environmental concerns and labour or human rights. GEF propagatesvia allthechannels through which countries engage with each other economicallyand politically to provide global public goods such as climate change mitigation. Thesteep rise in trade and investment restrictions points to coming headwinds whichcould be compounded by uncoordinated climate transition policies. Conversely, GEFcould make transition policies more difficult as, together with their prerequisites–such as shared regulatory approaches, knowledge sharing and financial aid to lesswell-off countries–they hinge on effective cross-border coordination andcollaboration.There is a considerable risk thatGEF may hinderclimate transitionpolicies. The report is structured as follows. The first section sheds light on how climatepolicies may contribute to GEF. The second section analyses the extent to whichGEF could hinder the green transition. The last section discusses gaps and avenuesfor further analytical and model-based work. JEL codes:F52,F64, H87,Q54. Keywords:Geoeconomic fragmentation, climate change,international public goods,international cooperation Executivesummary Two phenomena increasingly contribute to reshaping the world economy.Oneis the growing urgency of tackling climate change, which tends to be addressed byuncoordinated national transition policies. The other is the stark rise of geoeconomicfragmentation (GEF) concerns,as evidenced by the increase in trade andinvestmentrestrictions globally. This report aims to sketch out how geoeconomicfragmentation and climate change policies interplay, discuss key dimensions of thenexus and identify some analytical challenges. Uncoordinated climate transition policies can increaseGEF. •Current global production and consumption patterns contribute to climatechange. •Climate transition policies aimed at addressing some of those negativeexternalities are set to increasingly and permanentlymodifythe structure ofeconomies and have international spillovers through their effects on trade andfinancial flows at the global level.•Because of these spillovers, the lack of global coordination could lead tofrictions and uncooperative policy actions, met in turn with more retaliatorymeasures, which would compound GEF.•Uncoordinated transition policies could result in subsidyraces, increasedprotectionism or even trade wars. Uncooperative policies could distort tradeflows and lead to a reallocation of the production