欧洲央行货币分析师调查(SMA)

January 2025 Key ECB interest rates, market rates and market conditions In the first part of the table, please indicate your interest rateexpectations for the reserve maintenance period following theGoverning Council meeting. In the second part, please indicate theexpected value at the end of the quarter. 1.1 The long run should be interpreted as the horizon over which the effects of all shockswill have vanished. Please, omit the %-sign when entering the data. Please indicate the percentage probabilities that you attach to thefollowing possible changes in the DFR at the next two GoverningCouncil meetings. For each row, the percentage probabilities must add up to 100%.Omit the %-sign when entering the data. Please indicate your expectations for the swap rate or bond yield ofthe following financial instruments at the end of the stated dates. Omit the %-sign when entering the data. Please provide your expectations for the Eurosystem stock ofbonds under the APP and the PEPP at the end of the statedquarters and years. Please indicate how likely you think it is that the TPI will be firstactivated within the time periods indicated below. The sum of the percentage probabilities must equal 100%.Omit the %-sign when entering the data. Please provide your expectations for the outstanding amounts ofrefinancing operations distinguishing between MRO and LTROs. Please indicate the expected outstanding amounts at the end of the period. LTROsshall include all operations with maturity longer than one week. Please provide your forecasts for the euro area real GDP growth,unemployment rate, HICP inflation and HICP inflation excludingfood and energy for the following quarters. The long run should be interpreted as the horizon over which the effects of all shockswill have vanished. Omit the %-sign when entering the data. Please indicate the percentage probability you attach to averageannual euro area HICP inflation being below or above 2% in thefollowing years. For each year, the percentage probabilities must add up to 100% under theassumption of a continuous probability distribution around the forecast.Omit the %-sign when entering the data. Please assign percentage probabilities to annual euro area HICPinflation falling into the following intervals in the long run. The long run should be interpreted as the horizon over which the effects of all shockswill have vanished. Omit the %-sign when entering the data. How do you assess the balance of risks surrounding yourprojections for euro area growth and inflation? Please use the tick boxes for your answers. Please rank, in order of importance, up to three upside and threedownside risks surrounding your projections for the euro areagrowth and inflation outlook over the short and medium term. Please use only keywords (e.g. “energy/oil prices”, “geopolitical tensions”, “labourcost” etc.). Other comments Please enter any other comments in the text field below. 5.1