聚烯烃日报：新投产能放量，供应端承压

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 谨慎偏空：万华化学二期25万吨/年PE装置投产，前期裕龙石化、内蒙宝丰等新装置持续放量，供应端压力逐渐增大。下游春节前刚需补库，终端开工率走低，其中农膜开工率下滑加快，PE基差大幅走弱。原料端对成本存较强支撑，PDH制PP出现亏损，但当前未有新增PDH检修装置，关注PDH装置亏损性减产检修情况。上游工厂积极去库，需求端将进入年底尾声阶段，假期后生产企业将累库，预计聚烯烃价格偏弱运行。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存53万吨（2.5）。 基差方面，LL华东基差在290元/吨，PP华东基差在-70元/吨。 联系人 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 生产利润及国内开工方面，原料端对成本存较强支撑，PDH制PP出现亏损，但当前未有新增PDH检修装置，关注PDH装置亏损性减产检修情况。万华化学二期25万吨/年PE装置投产，前期裕龙石化、内蒙宝丰等新装置持续放量，供应端压力逐渐增大。 进出口方面，LL进口窗口关闭，PP出口窗口关闭。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 ■策略 （1）单边：中性。（2）跨期：无。 刘启展020-83901049liuqizhan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03140168 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%..................................................