Refining Transition: A Just Transition Economic Development Framework For Contra Costa County, California

A Just Transition EconomicDevelopment Framework ForContra Costa County, California January 2025 Jessie HF Hammerling, Ph.D.Will ToaspernLaura Schmahmann Contents Acknowledgments....................................................................................................................3Executive summary..................................................................................................................5Challenges facing Contra Costa County...............................................................................6Future scenarios in an unjust transition..............................................................................9An opportunity for a just transition.......................................................................................9A just transition economic development framework....................................................10Lessons learned for just transition planning in other regions..................................14Introduction.............................................................................................................................15Contra Costa Refinery Transition Partnership (CCRTP)..................................................17Process and methods................................................................................................................17Part 1. Contra Costa County’s economic and environmental transition.............201.1 Economic context...............................................................................................................201.2 The refineries.......................................................................................................................281.3 Challenges and opportunities facing Contra Costa County.................................42Part 2. Just transition economic development framework for Contra CostaCounty........................................................................................................................................442.1 Methodological approach................................................................................................452.2 Just transition priorities...................................................................................................472.3 Just transition principles..................................................................................................482.4 Tools to support a just transition.................................................................................502.5 Investment strategies......................................................................................................562.6 Next steps.............................................................................................................................66Part 3. Lessons learned for just transition planning in other regions................69References................................................................................................................................72Appendices...............................................................................................................................82Appendix A. Economic profile of Contra Costa County.................................................82Appendix B. Refinery worker job match analysis.........................................................109 Acknowledgments We thank the individuals who have participated in the Contra Costa Refinery Transition Partnership(CCRTP), for sharing your knowledge, wisdom, and lived experiences over the course of this project,and for providing input and feedback on the report. We deeply appreciate the trust, honesty,empathy, and vulnerability that have been shared throughout the CCRTP process. It has been aprivilege to support you in this challenging and necessary work. The organizations and participating members of the CCRTP include: ●Asian Pacific Environmental Network: Christine Cordero, Marie Choi, Connie Cho, Emma Ishii,Torm Nompraseurt, and Megan Zapanta●BlueGreen Alliance: Josh Sonnenfeld and JB Tengco●California Federation of Labor Unions: Cesar Lara●Contra Costa Labor Council, AFL-CIO: Josh Anijar, Joe Summers, Rebecca Barrett●United Association of Plumbers and Steamfitters Local 342: Chuck Leonard●United Steelworkers Local 5: Tracy Scott and Nick Plurkowski●United Steelworkers District 12: Ron Espinoza●United Steelworkers International Union: Jim Savage This report incorporates the findings from several distinct research projects. We thank the followingresearchers for their essential contributions to the CCRTP project: Virginia Parks and Ian Baran;Christina Simeone and Ian Lange;Betony Jones, Chelsey Bryant, and Sarah Thomason;Connie Choand Amelia Keyes. We also thank the following collaborators, advisors, research assistants, and reviewers for yourcontributions: Carol Zabin, Francisco Arzú, Mckela Kanu, Sam Appel, Sara Hinkley, Alyssa Cheung,Jesus Salazar, Juan David Merlo, Mathew Omogo, C