2024年第四季度全球智能手机出货量领先；小米/OPPO表现优于苹果/三星

Technology 4Q24global smartphoneshipments ahead;Xiaomi/Vivooutperformed Apple/Samsung 4Q24 global smartphone shipmentsgrew2.4% YoYto 332mnunits,driven byChinasales promotions, new modellaunchesand aggressive trade-ins.Bybrand,Xiaomi/Vivooutperformedpeerswith4.8%/12.7%YoYgrowthin 4Q24,while Apple/Samsung declined 4.1%/2.7% YoYwith share loss.Looking aheadto2025, weestimate global smartphone shipmentsto grow3% YoYboosted byiPhone17cycle,AI integrationand Chinesesubsidyprograms.For top picks,we prefer Xiaomionmarketshare gainsand EV upside, BYDEoniPhone/iPadcomponentsandAndroid exposure,andFIT Hon TengoniPhone cycleandAirPodsramp-up.Othersmartphonebeneficiaries include AACTech,SunnyOptical,Q-Tech, Luxshare and Tongda. China Technology Sector Alex NG(852) 3900 0881alexng@cmbi.com.hk Hanqing LIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hk 4Q24smartphone shipments slightly beat;Xiaomi and VivooutperformedApple and Samsung.IDC reported 4Q24 globalsmartphoneshipment growth of 2.4%YoY,slightly ahead of marketexpectations, mainly driven by Chinese brands (Xiaomi/Vivo) on expansioninEurope/Africaandstrong demand forlow-endand mid-rangemodels.Bybrand,1)Xiaomishipmentsgrew 4.8% YoY driven bythepremium push,portfolio adjustment andglobal market expansion;2)Vivojumped 12.7%YoY thanks to strongperformancein India and China;3)Samsungdeclined2.7%YoYon competition from Xiaomi/Oppo/Honor butS24 series&A-seriesdemand remainedstrong;4)Appledeclined 4.1% onsofter iPhone16andlack of Apple Intelligence at launch.Overall,global smartphoneshipmentsgrew 6.4% YoYin 2024, slightly ahead ofourexpectations(+4%YoY), mainly due to morepromotions, new modelsatvarious pricebands,interest-free financing andaggressivetrade-ins. 2025 outlook:expect 3% YoY shipment growth on iPhone 17,AIintegration, China subsidyplansandrefresh cycles.For2025,despiteuncertainties in potentialtariffsfromtheUS government,we expecttheimpactislimitedandweforecastsmartphone shipmentgrowthof 3%YoYinFY25E boosted by iPhone17series (5 new models)and AI integration. Near-termcatalysts:Chinesesubsidies, AImodel launches, iPhoneSE4; PreferApple/Xiaomi supply chain in 2025.We expect recentnational subsidies in Chinawillboost replacementdemandin near termandiPhone SE4 launch in 2Q25 will drive shipment upside.For iPhone, we arepositive on AppleSE4 launchin2Q25E,4 new iPhonesin 2H25Eand Appleintelligenceupgrade.For Android, we expectacceleratedspec upgrade inhigh-end models.Our top picks areXiaomi,BYDEand FITHon Teng. Othersmartphonebeneficiaries include AAC Tech,Sunny Optical,Q-Tech,Luxshare and Tongda. Source: IDC,CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe researchanalyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respectto the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neitherthe analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issueof this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock withpotential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expectedto perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address:45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future p