房地产 market 怎么样

EquityResearchEconomics July7,2023 RicharddeChazal,CFA EconomicsWeekly What’sUpWiththeHousingMarket? Pleaserefertoimportantdisclosuresonpages14and15.Analystcertificationisonpage14. Interestrate–sensitivesectorslikehousing,whilethey’vefeltthedragofthepastFedactions,havestartedtorecoverinsomeregions,andfinancialconditions,youknow,mostrecentlywereeas-ing….Wenowseehousingputtinginabottomandmaybeevenmovingupalittlebit. —FedChairPowell,June14,2023 Oneofthequestionswecontinuetogetfromclientsmorerecentlyhasbeen,whattheheckishappeningwiththehousingmarket?Themostrecentdataonnewhomesalesandhousingstartshasfarsurpassedexpectationstotheupside,andhomebuilderconfidencehasshiftedbackintopositiveterritory.FedChairPowellalsoremarkedonthisresurgenceattheJuneFOMCmeeting.Giventhathousingisoneofthemostinterest-rate-sensitivesectorsoftheeconomy,andwithmortgageratesjumpingfrom3.0%to7.2%todayandaffordabilityextremelylowyetsalesandstartsjumping,inthisEconomicsWeekly,weonceagainlookatwhat’shappeningwithhousing. Supply-SideDynamics—NewHomeSupplyFalling,butMaybeNotforLong Thereisastrongdivideatthemomentbetweenthesupplydynamicsforexistinghomes(byfarthelargestshareofthehousingmarket)andnewhomes. Thesupplysituationforexistinghomescaneasilybede-scribedasstillextremelytight,butstartingtoease. Forexample,theinventoryofexistinghomesforsaleis Aslongasthisisthecase,anynewsupplyofexistinghomeswilllikelycomefromthreemainsources: 1.Sellerswithnomortgages–forexample,babyboom-ers(lookingtodownsize)andhigher-incomehouse-holds.AccordingtotheCensusBureau,39%ofU.S.homeownersin2021hadnomortgageandpresum-ablywouldbemorewillingtosellinthismarketiftheincentivewasthere.Furthermore,arecord10%ofpurchasesinfourthquarter2022werefinancedwithcash(exhibits2). Exhibit2. ShareofNewHomesSoldbyTypeofFinancing:CashPurchases,% 12.0 Q4202210.7% Q120238.3% 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0Mar-03Mar-06Mar-09Mar-12Mar-15Mar-18Mar-21Mar-24 Source:CensusBureau,WilliamBlairEquityResearch 2.Distressedsellers–thiscohortusuallyarisesfromrisingratesofunemployment,whichwearenotsee-ingjustyetwithbothlowunemploymentratesandlowratesofdelinquencies(exhibit3).Anotherreasoncouldbedivorcesorhouseholdseparations. stillhistoricallylow,asshowninexhibit1.Thisisover- whelminglytheresultofhighermortgagerates,whereby Exhibit3. DelinquencyRatesonAllMortgagesvsUnemploymentRate, anyexistinghomeownerwantingtochangehomeswouldlikelyhavetogiveuptheirlocked-in2%-3%mortgagerateforanew6.5%-7.0%mortgagerate.Unsurprisingly,fewarekeentodothis,whichisradicallyreducingthepoolofavailablehomesonthemarket. 11.3 10.3 9.3 DelinquencyRate,% SeasonallyAdjusted,% Recessions DelinquencyRateonAllMortgagesUnemploymentRate UnemploymentRate,% 13 11 8.3 9 Exhibit1. InventoryofUnsoldHomes NewHomesvsExistingHomes 7.3 6.37 Recessions Inventory-ExistingHomes Inventory-NewHomes AverageNewHomes1963-2022 13Months'supplyatcurrentsalesrate 11 5.3 5 4.3 3.3 9Mar-79Mar-83Mar-87Mar-91Mar-95Mar-99 Source:MortgageBankersAssociation,WilliamBlairEquityResearch Mar-03Mar-07 3 Mar-11Mar-15Mar-19Mar-23 7 5 3 1 Jan-63Jan-68 Jan-73Jan-78 Jan-83Jan-88 Jan-93Jan-98Jan-03Jan-08Jan-13Jan-18 Jan-23 3.Otherreasons–thesemightincludehavingtorelo-catetoanewgeography(work,retirement,workingremotely,etc.),secondhomesorrentalhomesbeingsold,homeownerswhopossiblychoosetorentinsteadofown. Source:CensusBureau,WilliamBlairEquityReseach Theaggregatedataoninventoriesofexistinghomeshasstartedtoshowasmallincreaseoverthelastfewmonths.Overtime,thisislikelytoincreasefurtherastheeconomy adaptstohigherinterestrates,anewequilibriumisreachedwithrespectthesupplyofnewhomes,andmorehomeownersarewilling(orforced)toputtheirhomesonthemarket. Withregardtonewhomes,thesituationisthereverse— stillplentyofexcesssupply,andmoreinthepipeline. Heretoo,thedataisalittlemorenuancedbetweennewsingle-familyhomes(whereexcesssupplyislessex-treme)andmultifamilyhomes(wherethereisstillplentyofexcesssupply). 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Exhibit5. Multi-familyHomeCompletionsvsUnderConstruction (5-Unitormore,'000s,SAAR) Recessions UnderConstructionCompletions 0 Jan-70Jan-75Jan-80 Jan-85Jan-90Jan-95Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10Jan-15Jan-20 Hence,whileexhibit1showsadeclineinthesupplyof Sources:CensusBureau,WilliamBlairEquityResearch newhomesoverthelastfewmonths,therestillseemstobeanenormousbacklogofnewhomesthathaveyettobe completedandcometomarket.Thisbackloghasbeentheresultofthepandemicandtheshortagesofworkersandmaterials(e.g.,lumber,windows,andsteeltrusses). Theshareofnewhomesthathavebeenauthorizedbutnotyetstartedisshowninexhibit4.Inthepast,spikesinthissharehavebeenhighlypredictiveofhousing-relatedreces-sions.Typically,wheneverthesharehasbeenabove15%,theeconomyenteredrecession.Todaythisis19%,downfromapeakof22%inJanuary,whichwasonaparwiththeJanuary2009reading,i.e.,duringthepeakoftheGFC. Exhibit4. NewHousingUnitsAuthorized(ButNotYetStarted)as%ofTotalAuthorized,% Excesssupply19% Pasthousing-relatedrecessionsassociatedwithexcesssupply>15% 35 30 Thesituationisnotsodirefornewsingle