橡胶板块2024年12月月报：天胶从高位回落，合成存成本支撑

2024-12-25 天㬵从⾼位回落，合成存成本⽀撑——橡㬵板块2024年12⽉⽉报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 报告要点 本报告主要分析12月橡胶板块（天然橡胶与合成橡胶）供需数据的变化。 摘要 联系信息 从过去⼀个⽉公布的天然橡㬵产业数据来看，供给端前期对价格的⽀撑开始转弱，需求端维持尚可。往后⼀个⽉时间内需关注是否会出现不及预期的累库表现、以及原料价格企稳时的价格⽔平。 农业组研究团队研究员：李青从业资格号：F3056728投资咨询号：Z0014122 价格维度： 泰国原料价格先涨后跌，高位回落速度较快，目前来看在寻底的过程当中。国内现货方面同样出现松动。 刘高超从业资格号：F3011329投资咨询号：Z0012689 供应维度： 从ANRPC公布的全球产量数据来看，1-11月累计减产0.9%，不过仍需结合主产国出口数据进行分析与判断。 王聪颖从业资格号：F0254714投资咨询号：Z0002180 需求维度： 吴静雯从业资格号：F3083970投资咨询号：Z0016293 12月国内下游表现延续今年以来的分化情况，半钢偏强全钢较弱。不过对于价格的影响有限。海外方面，10月橡胶进口量整体反弹。 李艺华从业资格号：F03086449投资咨询号：Z0019380 产业链库存角度：上游库存仍处于低位。国内中游库存开始进入季节性累库时间。 程也从业资格号：F03087739投资咨询号：Z0019480 从过去⼀个⽉公布的合成橡㬵产业数据来看，原料端丁⼆烯价格强势反弹上⾏对盘⾯形成较强⽀撑及带动，需求端维持尚可。往后⼀个⽉时间内需关注原料价格在进⼝到港量增加的预期下能否维持，⾃⾝供需变化有限，更多遵循季节性波动。 周重廷从业资格号：F03093821投资咨询号：Z0020578 价格维度：丁二烯价格反弹上涨，顺丁现货价格稳定小幅上涨。 顺丁橡胶10-11月产量大幅增加，11月单月产量已经来到近五年同期最高水平。 需求维度：参考天胶。 产业链库存角度：顺丁橡胶近两个月社会库存快速累积，截至12月中旬已经达到近五年来最高水平，不过从累库幅度来看并不及产量增长幅度。 ⻛险因素：数据失真、供需超预期变化、极端天⽓ 目录 图表目录一、价格·····················································3二、供应·····················································41、产量·····················································42、进口·····················································5三、需求·····················································61、国内需求···················································62、海外需求···················································8四、库存·····················································9五、供需平衡表··················································10一、价格·····················································11二、供给·····················································111、产量·····················································112、进出口····················································12三、需求·····················································13四、库存·····················································14 图表 1：泰国合艾胶水价格（泰铢/公斤）····································3图表 2：泰国合艾杯胶价格（泰铢/公斤）····································3图表 3：泰国合艾烟胶片价格··········································3图表 4：泰国合艾胶水-杯胶价差（泰铢/公斤）·································3图表 5：国产老全乳胶价格（元/吨）······································4图表 6：人民币泰国混合胶价格·········································4图表 7：ANRPC全球月产量数据（千吨）·····································4图表 8：ANRPC中国天然橡胶月产量（千吨）··································4图表 9：泰国天然与混合橡胶月度出口量（万吨）·······························5图表 10：科特迪瓦天然橡胶月度出口量（万吨）································5图表 11：中国天然乳胶进口量（万吨）·····································5图表 12：中国烟片胶进口量（万吨）······································5图表 13：中国标准胶进口量（万吨）······································6图表 14：中国天然橡胶进口总量（万吨）····································6图表 15：中国混合胶进口量（万吨）······································6图表 16：中国天然+混合胶进口总量（万吨）··································6图表 17：全球天然橡胶月表观消费量（千吨）·································7图表 18：中国天然橡胶月表观消费量（千吨）·································7图表 19：全钢胎周度开工率（%）········································7图表 20：半钢胎周度开工率（%）········································7图表 21：全钢胎周度库存天数（天）······································7图表 22：半钢胎周度库存天数（天）······································7图表 23：乘用车月销量（万辆）·········································8图表 24：商用车月销量（万辆）·········································8图表 25：重卡月销量（万辆）··········································8图表 26：挖掘机月销量（台）··········································8图表 27：美国天然橡胶月进口量（万吨）····································8图表 28：欧盟天然橡胶月进口量（万吨）····································8图表 29：日本天然橡胶月进口量（万吨）····································9图表 30：韩国天然橡胶月进口量（万吨）····································9图表 31：印度天然橡胶月进口量（万吨）····································9图表 32：巴西天然橡胶月进口量（万吨）····································9图表 33：深色胶保税区内库存（万吨）·····································10图表 34：深色胶一般贸易库存（万吨）·····································10图表 35：泰国:产成品存货指数:块状橡胶（2016=100）····························10 图表 36：泰国:产成品存货指数:浓缩乳胶（2016=100）····························10图表 37：天然橡胶供需平衡表··········································11图表 38：丁二烯橡胶山东市场价（元/吨）···································11图表 39：丁二烯山东市场价···········································11图表 40：合成橡胶盘面价格与原料价格及天胶价格相关性···························11图表 41：RU-BR价差···············································11图表 42：丁二烯橡胶月度产量（吨）······································12图表 43：丁二烯月产量（万吨）·········································12图表 44：丁二烯橡胶月度开工（%）·······································12图表 45：丁二烯月度开工（%）·········································12图表 46：丁二烯橡胶月进口量（吨）······································13图表 47：丁二烯橡胶月出口量（吨）······································13图表 48：丁二烯内外盘价差（元/吨）·····································13图表 49：丁二烯月度进口量（吨）·······································13图表 50：丁二烯月度出口量（吨）·······································13图表 51：丁苯橡胶月产量（吨）·········································14图表 52：SBS月产量（吨）············································14图表 53：ABS月产量（万吨）··········································14图表 54：四大下游（顺丁橡胶、丁苯橡胶、SBS、ABS）对丁二烯消耗量（吨）················14图表 55：丁二烯橡胶社会库存（吨）················