聚烯烃周报：新增产能投产，存量检修高位

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 中性：存量检修装置仍偏多，部分装置开车推迟，开工率维持低位，新增装置中英石化恢复开车，内蒙宝丰、金诚石化顺利投产，新增产能持续放量。库存仍处于低位，整体供应端压力不大。年底裕龙石化存投产预期，中长期供应压力较大。下游开工率维持缓慢下行，刚需采购维持。PDH制PP利润处于盈亏平衡附近，PDH开工率仍维持低位。欧佩克会议宣布减产延期至明年第一季度末，提振市场氛围，预计聚烯烃维持区间整理。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 石化库存61万吨，较上一周累库3万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差+370元/吨，PP华东基差+20元/吨。 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 生产利润及国内开工方面，存量检修装置仍偏多，部分装置开车推迟，开工率维持低位。PDH制PP利润处于盈亏平衡附近，PDH开工率仍维持低位。 进出口方面，LL进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 下游需求方面，进入下游淡季，下游开工率预计将维持缓慢下行，刚需采购维持。 ■策略 中性。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■风险 原油价格大幅波动，需求恢复不及预期。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................9图20:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................