证券-基础材料_中国：工信部发布钢铁行业标准更新；强劲的
MllTissued steel industry standardupdates;strongcement/glass recovery Industry Overview 04 November 2024 Metals: ally margin squeezed by hiking alumina price EquityChinaBasic Materials During the week ended 1 Nov, LME copper price was -1.0% WoW to USs9,374/t, andChangjiang price was -0.3% WoW to RMB76,520/t. LME aluminum price was -2.0% WoWto USs2,592/t, and Changjiang price was -0.2% WoW to RMB20,780/t. Subjected to3lower UTR among major alumina producers and bauxite shortage, domestic aluminaprices was +5% WoW to RMB5,109/t, which squeezed aluminum margin. Comex gold(spot) price was +0.1% WoW to Uss2,750/oz. Average price of domestic battery-gradelithium carbonate (99.5%) was up 0.8% WoW to RMB73.9k/t. Matty Zhao >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4001matty.zhao@bofa.con Steel: Steel industry standard updates Edward Leung, CFA >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3282edward.leung@bofa.com Rebar price was down 0.1% WoW to RMB3,612/t and HRC was up 0.9% WoW toRMB3,620/t. Upstream iron ore price Was +5.7% WoW to Uss103.9/t. Spot rebar cashmargin -RMB31/t to RMB193/t and spot HRC cash margin +RMB35/t to -RMB137/t.Finished steel product (rebar, HRC, wire rods, CRC and Plate) output was down 1.5%WoW to 8.7mnt, while inventory was down by 2% WoW to 12.3mnt. MlT issued steelindustry standard updates on November 1st that encourages steel makers to upgradeequipment and focus on environment protection issue. We believe it's one way forgovernment to control steel capacity given small steel mills with outdated equipmentcan no longer meet the standards. Though certain policy will not directly cut steelproduction, we believe it is the trend considering steel mills have loss making for c. 2years and production cut is the most effective way to change the situation. Yibing Xia >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong)+85235088045yibing.xia@bofa.com Miriam Chan, CFA >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7478miriam.chan@bofa.com Cement price hike continued; glass, paper recovery Cement: The average national cement price was up by 1.88% to RMB414/t as of 1 Nov.Cement prices in Liaoning, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Yunnan increased by RMB10-30/t,while prices in Hunan, Guangdong, and Chongqing decreased by RMB15-30/t.Nationwide shipment ratio came at 45.6%, -3.0% WoW, while nationwide inventory ratioreached 66.9%, +0.9% WoW. Subjected to typhoon, lower temperature andenvironmental inspection, nationwide cement demand declined WoW. Despite shrinkingdemand, cement price continued to rise amid off-peak production. Paper: paper pricewas up by 0.14% WoW to RMB3,533/t as of Oct 23rd as paper mills actively pushedNational average float glass price (incl. VAT) rebounded by 6% WoW to RMB1,328/t,float glass GPM was up 5.2ppts to 11.0%, supported by higher glass price and cheapersoda ash. Solar materials: Polysilicon price was flattish WoW at RMB36/kg(w/VAT).POE PV film and EVA PV film (white) prices were also flattish. Spot 3.2mm and 2.Ommcoated solar glass prices were flat WoW at RMB20.3/sqm and RMB12.3/sqm,respectively. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 13 to 15.12758216 Key charts Exhibit 2: Copper social inventory Exhibit 1: Copper and aluminum spot prices As of Oct 31st, Shanghai bonded warehouse copper inventory/Shanghaicopper social inventory was +3%/+1.6% WoW, Guangdong bondedwarehouse copper inventory/Guangdong copper social inventory was17.3%/-19.8% WoW LME copper price was -1.0% WoW to USs9,374/t and LME aluminum pricewas -2.0% WoW to US$2,592/t Domestic monthly treatment charges on copper concentrate: USs13.1/t asof Nov. I st Source: Wind, BofA Global Research Exhibit 6: Spot cash margins at steel mills +RMB35/t to-RMB137/t Source: Bloomberg,SMM, Wind, BofA Global Research Exhibit 8: ASP at Qinhuangdao port (Kcal5,500) Exhibit 7: Containerboard margin tracker ASP of QHD 5,500kcal spot price down 0.4% WoW to RMB850/t as of 1 Nov The Nine Dragons margin tracker is now indicating NP/t of -RMB14/t for thisweek, up 23.8% WoW Source: Sxcoal, BofA Global Research Source: Wind, BofA Global Research Exhibit 5: Lithium carbonate unit refining margin Current lithium carbonate refining margin based on spodumene is close tobreak-even Nationwide cement shipment ratio came at 45.6%,-3.0% Wow Source: Digital cement, BofA Global Research Exhibit 11: Polysilico
