2024年世界能源转型展望

1.5° C PATHWAY © IRENA 2024 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printedand/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyrightholder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of useand restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before anyuse of such material. CITATION IRENA (2024),World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024: 1.5°C Pathway,International Renewable Energy Agency,Abu Dhabi.Available for download:www.irena.org/publicationsFor further information or to provide feedback:publications@irena.org ABOUT IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) serves as the principal platform for internationalco-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge,and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. A globalintergovernmental organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption andsustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean,solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security, andlow-carbon economic growth and prosperity.www.irena.org DISCLAIMER This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken byIRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials,agents, data or other third-party content providers, provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed orimplied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or materialherein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. Themention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed orrecommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designationsemployed, and the presentation of material herein, do not imply the expression of any opinion on the partof IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, orconcerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. WORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK 2024 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was developed under the guidance of Raul Alfaro-Pelico (Director, IRENA Knowledge, Policy andFinance Centre) and Roland Roesch (Director, IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre). It was led by UteCollier and Ricardo Gorini, and co-ordinated by Yong Chen. The report was authored by: Sonia Al-Zoghoul, Ute Collier, Francisco Gafaro, Hannah Sofia Guinto, DialaHawila, Bilal Hussain, Ines Jacob, Luis Janeiro, Iris van der Lugt, Jerome Nsengiyaremye, Larissa Pinheiro PupoNogueira, Juan Pablo Jimenez Navarro, Caroline Ochieng, Faran Rana, Danial Saleem, Ntsebo Sephelane andMengzhu Xiao (IRENA); Raul Miranda (ex-IRENA); and Xavier Garcia Casals, Laura El- Katiri and Stuti Piya(IRENA consultants). Valuable inputs and comments were provided by Deborah Machado Ayres, Francisco Boshell, NorelaConstantinescu, Yong Chen, Nazik Elhassan, Asami Miketa, Juan Jose Garcia Mendez, Michael Renner,Karsten Sach and Gondia Sokhna Seck. Publications support was provided by Francis Field and Stephanie Clarke.Thereport was edited by Steven Kennedy with design by weeks.deWerbeagentur GmbH. Communications and digitalisation support wereprovided by Nicole Bockstaller and Daria Gazzola. IRENA is grateful for the generous support of the German Federal Ministryfor Economic Affairs and Climate Action. TheWorld Energy Transitions Outlookoutlines a vision for the transition of the energy landscape to reflectthe goals of the Paris Agreement, presenting a pathway for limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C andbringing CO2emissions to net zero by mid-century. The report builds on two of IRENA’s key scenarios to capture global progress toward meeting the 1.5°Cclimate goal: Planned Energy Scenario 1.5°C Scenario ThePlanned Energy Scenariois the primaryreferencecase for this study,providing aperspective on energy system developmentsbasedon governments’energy plans andother planned targets and policies in placeat the time of analysis, with a focus on G20countries. The1.5°C Scenario describes an energytransitionpathway aligned with the 1.5°Cclimate goal to limit global average temperatureincrease by the end of the present century to1.5°C, relative to pre-industrial levels. It prioritisesreadily availabletechnology solutions, whichcan be scaled up to meet the 1.5°C goal. FOREWORD As leaders meet for COP29 in Baku, IRENA’sWorld Energy Transition Outlookdemonstrates that theglobal energy transition remains off course, undermining our ability to meet the 1.5°C climate goalagreed