华润啤酒：高端化步伐坚定，安全边际已现

华润啤酒China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) 高端化步伐坚定，安全边际已现 Premiumization is in Steady Progress, the Margin of Safety has Emerged (Please seeAPPENDIX 1for English summary) 面对行业波动凸显韧性，稳步推进“啤白双赋能”战略。24H1公司实现营收/归母净利润237.4/47.0亿元，同比-0.5%/+1.2%。受高基数 和 天 气 的 负 面 影 响 ，啤 酒 业 务实 现收 入225.7亿 元 ， 同 比-1.4%，销量/吨价同比-3.4%/+2.0%，量价表现均优于行业平均。受益于产品结构提升和部分包装物成本下降，啤酒业务毛利率提升0.6pct至45.8%。白酒方面，经过摘要焕新以及降库稳价、组织重塑等措施，上半年白酒业务实现收入11.8亿元，同比+20.6%，带动毛利率提升2.1pct至67.6%。报告期内经营活动现金流入净额同比增长25.6%。公司派发中期股息0.373元/股，同比增长30%，半年度分红率从20.1%提升至25.7%。 长期主义+高质量发展夯实基础，管理提效+控制开支促进分红提升。公司坚持推进高端化发展和品牌建设，啤酒方面，24H1公司中档及以上啤酒销量占比首次超过50%，高档及以上/次高档及以上啤酒销量同比录得双位数/单位数增长，喜力、老雪和红爵等产品销量同增超20%。白酒方面，全国性高端大单品摘要的销量同增超50%，贡献白酒业务营业额约70%。虽然销售费用率提升1.2pct至17.6%抵消了整体毛利率的上涨，但依靠管理精益提效，净利率微升0.3pct。同时，公司表示将加大力度控制资本性开支，争取稳步提升派息额和派息率。 宏观政策组合拳提振内需，必选消费估值底部抬升。9月26日政治局会议召开以来，宏观政策组合拳相继推出，随着后续促消费、扩内需等政策逐渐发力，国内消费可能迎来加速复苏。根据我们的统计，截止10月底，H股必需性消费行业PE历史分位数处于2011年以来的1%（15.1x），其中酒精饮料PE历史分位数处于2011年以来的2%（16.6x）。我们认为国内经济预期转好、美元降息周期带来的流动性改善将进一步提升H股估值，华润啤酒作为啤酒行业龙头和唯一的“啤酒+白酒”双轮驱动标的，有望率先受益于板块的估值修复。 资料来源：Factset 盈利预测与投资建议。公司2023年啤酒销量、收入、利润已位列国内第一。尽管今年二三季度行业需求持续承压，但公司的量价韧性和高端化节奏均优于行业平均水平，体现了坚实的品牌基础和强大的运营能力。四季度基数较低，国庆假期餐饮数据释放现饮渠道企稳信号，成本下行也为业绩带来确定性。白酒方面，公司已完成第一阶段“探索”，进入第二阶段“发展”，预计未来两年将迎来快速增长。从业绩、估值和分红等多角度分析，公司股价已具备较高安全边际。我们预计公司24-26年EPS为1.64/1.83/1.96元（前值为1.87/2.14/2.42元），给予24年27x PE（不变），目标价由56下调至48港元，维持“优于大市”评级。 风险提示：居民消费力恢复不及预期，酱酒热退潮，标的整合进度不及预期 闻宏伟Hongwei Wenhongwei.wen@htisec.com APPENDIX 1 Summary In the face of industry fluctuations, the company has shown resilience and steadily promoted the "beer and liquor dualempowerment" strategy. In 24H1, the company achieved revenue/net profit attributable to the parent of 23.74 billion yuan/4.70billion yuan, a year-on-yearchangeof-0.5%/+1.2%. Affected by tough compsand the negative impact of weather, the beerbusiness achieved revenue of 22.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, and sales volume/ASPchanged-3.4%/+2.0%respectively, volume and price performance were better than the industry average. Benefiting from the improvement of productmix and the decline in the cost of packaging material, the gross profit margin of thebeer business increased by 0.6pct to 45.8%. Interms of baijiu, after measures such as lowering inventory and stabilizing prices, and organizational reshaping, the baijiu businessachieved revenue of RMB1.18 billion in 24H1, +20.6% year-on-year, driving gross profit margin up by 2.1pct to 67.6%. Net cashinflow from operating activities increased by 25.6% year-on-year in the reporting period. The company paid an interim dividendof RMB0.373/share, an increase of 30% year-on-year, and the half-year dividend rate increased from 20.1% to 25.7%. Long-termism + high-quality development lays a solid foundation, and management efficiency + control of expenses promotesdividend increases. The company insists on promoting high-end development and brand building. In terms of beer, the company'smid-endand above beer sales accounted for more than 50% for the first time in 24H1, and the sales ofpremiumand above/sub-premiumand above beer recorded double-digit/single-digit growth year-on-year. The sales of products such as Heinekenincreasedby more than 20% year-on-year. In terms ofbaijiu, the sales ofZhaiYaoincreased by more than 50% year-on-year, contributingabout 70% of the turnover of liquor business. Although the selling and distributionexpensesratio increased by 1.2pct to 17.6%,offsetting the increase in overall gross profit margin, the net profit margin rose slightly by 0.3pctthankstomanagement efficiency.At the same time, the company stated that it will increase its efforts to control capital expenditures and strive to steadilyincreasethe dividend amount anddividend rate. A combination of macroeconomic policiesis likely toboost domestic demand, and the valuation ofconsumer staples sectorrosefrom the bottom. Since the Political Bureau meeting on September 26, a combination of macroeconomic policies has beenlaunched one after another. With the gradual implementation of subsequent policies such as promoting consumption andexpanding domestic demand, domestic consumption may usher in an accelerated recovery. According to our statistics, as of theend of October, the historical percentile of the PE of the H-shareconsumer staplesindustry was 1% (15.1x) since 2011, and thehistorical percentile of the PE of alcoholic beverages was 2% (16.6x) since 2011. We believe that the improvement in domesticeconomicoutlookand the improvement inmarketliquidity brought about by the US dollar interest rate cut cycle will furtherenhance the valuation of H shares. As the leader of the beer industry and the only "beer +baijiu"company, China Resources Beeris expected tobenefit first from the valuationriseof the sector. Earnings forecast and investment advice. The company's beer sales, revenue and profit in 2023 have ranked first in China. Althoughthe industry demand continued to be under pressure in the second and third quarters of this year, the company's volu