港股策略月度数据观察（2024年10月）：期待扩张性财政政策

港股策略月度数据观察(2024年10月) 期待扩张性财政政策 过去一个月香港股市大幅上涨，恒生指数、国企指数和恒生科技指数上涨8-15%不等。恒生综合行业指数中，非必需消费、医疗保健和工业表现最佳，上涨11%。能源和电讯表现最差，下滑1%。本月迄今，金融和电讯表现最佳，上涨0%和1%，而必需消费和医疗保健表现最差，下滑7%。 9月份下游大多表现良好。中国整体乘用车零售量恢复增长，零售额和中国股市也出现强劲复苏： 赵文利(852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com 汽车：9月，中国乘用车零售量同比增速由8月的-1%上升至5%；中国新能源汽车零售量同比增速由8月的43%上升至51%；中国新能源汽车渗透率维持在53%，连续三个月超过50%；中国汽车总库存指数由8月的1.16上升至9月的1.29，低于1.50的警戒线。 根据RRG分析，尽管正在失去动能，能源、原材料和公用事业仍处于领先象限，而资讯科技继续在走强。本月迄今，资讯科技和地产建筑业的RS动量出现了0.5和0.4个百分点的大幅积极变化，而医疗保健和公用事业的该指标下降，下滑1.0个百分点。 邹炜(852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com 券 商 ：中 国A股 市 场 日 均 成 交 额 环 比 增 长34.3%，同比增长27.4%；香港股市日均成交额环比增长77.1%，同比增长87.5%。 卖空成交额占总成交额的平均比例从16.8%下降至12.9%。过去一个月，20个行业中8个行业的年度预测每股收益均有所上调。在20个主要行业中，仍有11个行业的市盈率低于5年平均预期市盈率，其中传媒和非必需性消费服务业的市盈率低于5年平均水平1.1和1.0个标准差，而电讯的市盈率则高于5年平均市盈率1.0个标准差。 地产：年初至今，中国房屋开工面积同比增长至-22.3%，而中国房屋平均销售价格同比增长改善至-6.7%。 消费：9月份中国社会消费品零售总额同比增长率从8月份的2.1%上升至3.2%。9月份中国网上零售额同比增长率放缓至9%。网上实物商品零售额增长率降至8%。 沪深港通活跃股票中，南向资金继续青睐成长股。由于被纳入港股通，阿里巴巴呈现出压倒性的南向净买入，股价下滑5%；美团过去一个月净卖出量最大，股价上涨13%。 资讯科技：SOX环比持平，同比增长61%。8月份全球半导体出货量环比增长4%，同比增长21%。 过去两周，港股延续了震荡盘整走势。美国大选及FOMC会议临近，我们提醒投资者需谨慎操作。虽然目前民调及赌盘显示特朗普胜选概率较大，但回顾美国大选历史，大选结果及权力移交过程仍充满不确定性，大选期间环球市场波动性或大幅上升。然而大选的不确定性毕竟更多是短期干扰，不改变美国降息周期和中国稳经济政策的大方向。此外，全国人大常委会第十二次会议将于11月4日至8日召开，市场期待会议审议通过大规模财政刺激方案，未来几个月举行的中央经济工作会议和“两会”也将是重要的政策窗口。这有助于对冲美国大选及FOMC会议后的潜在外部冲击。考虑估值安全边际及基本面改善的上行潜力，我们建议投资者未来一个月在20,000点附近逢低买入盈利可见度高、受益于财政政策的科技成长股及消费、制造业龙头。 原油上涨，有色金属走势分化： 能源和原材料：布伦特原油环比上涨2%，同比下跌17%；WTI原油环比上涨1%，同比下跌18%。有色金属走势分化，黄金、铝延续涨势，铜、镍等价格有所降温。铁矿石期货、中国热轧钢材、中国螺纹钢等黑色金属月度价格再次出现上涨。 工业工程：基建进一步回暖，9月中国挖掘机销量环比增长8%，同比增长11%，其中国内市场销量同比增长22%，出口同比增长3%。 工业运输：BDI环比下跌30%，同比下跌23%；SCFI环比下跌3%，同比上涨104%；CCFI环比下跌14%，同比上涨73%。 CCBI Securities | ResearchHKEquity Strategy Data Monitor (Oct 2024) Expecting an expansionary fiscal policy The Hong Kong stock marketsurged over the pastmonth as the HSI, HSCEI, and HSTECH rose 8-15%.Among the major industry indexes of the HSCI,consumer discretionary, healthcare, and industrialswere the top performers, all rising 11%. Energy andtelecommunicationswere the main laggards,each declining 1%. Month-to-date, financials andtelecommunicationswere the top performers,declining0%and 1%,respectively.Consumerstaplesand healthcare were the top laggards,each falling 7%. Most of the downstream fared well in Sep. ChinaoverallPV retail sales returned to growthwhileretailsalesand the China equity market enjoyed astrong recovery.Automobiles:In Sep,China PV retail sales Cliff Zhao volume YoY growth rose from-1% in Aug to 5%inSep.China NEV retail sales volume YoYgrowth rose from43% in Aug to 51% in Sep.China NEV penetration maintained at 53%, forathird consecutive month above the 50%threshold.The China Auto Overall InventoryIndex rose from 1.16 in Aug to 1.29 in Sep, stilllingering below the warning level of 1.50.Brokers:China’s A-share market ADT was up (852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com According to relative rotation graph (RRG) analysis,energy, materials, and utilities are still the leadingindustries despite losing momentum. Information,meanwhile, continued to gain strength. Month-to-date, information and properties & constructionsawlarge positive changes in RS-momentum of 0.5 and0.4ppt,respectively,whereas healthcare andutilities both declined 1.0 ppt. 34.3% MoM and 27.4% YoY while Hong Kongstock market ADT was up 77.1% MoM and 87.5%YoY. Wilson Zou(852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com Property:YTD, China housing floor space startsYoY growth strengthened to-22.3%whileChinahousingaverage selling price YoY growthimproved to-6.7%.Consumer:China retail sales value YoY growth The average proportion of short-selling turnover-to-total turnover in HK market fell from16.8% to 12.9%in the past month. Estimated current year EPS for 8out of 20 sectors rose over the past month. Amongthe 20 major sectors, 11 traded below their 5Yaverageforward P/Es.Media and consumerdiscretionary services traded 1.1 and 1.0 SD belowtheir5Y averages,while telecommunicationstraded 1.0 SD above its 5Y average P/E. rose from 2.1% in Aug to 3.2% in Sep. YTD Chinaonline retail sales YoY growth in Sep slowed to9%. Online physical goods growth fell to 8%.Information:The SOX was flat MoM with a YoY jump of 61%.Worldwide semiconductorshipmentsrose 4% MoM and 21% YoY in Aug. The Hong Kong market continued its consolidationover the past two weeks. In the approach to the USelection and the next FOMCmeeting, we remindinvestors to take a more cautious approach to themarket. Although current polls indicate that Trumphas a high probability of victory, the history of USelectionsrevealsaprocessfraughtwithuncertainty, with election results and the powertransfer process often called into question.Globalmarket volatility is liable to rise sharply in the weeksbeforeand after the election.However,weconsider the uncertainty surrounding the electionperiod to be short-term in nature and unlikely todisrupt the US interest rate cut cycle or China'seconomic stabilization policy. In China, the 12thMeetingof the Standing Committee of theNatio