The Changing Wealth of Nations - Global Assessment of the Economic Value of Non-Wood Forest Ecosystem Services

TECHNICAL REPORTPublic Disclosure Authorized Global Assessment of the Economic Valueof Non-Wood Forest Ecosystem Services © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board ofExecutive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this workand does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liabilitywith respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. Theboundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply anyjudgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement oracceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privilegesand immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as fullattribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Design: Clarity Global Strategic Communicationswww.clarityglobal.net Acknowledgements Authors: Juha Siikamäki, Chief Economist, International Union for the Conservation of NatureMatías Piaggio, Economist, International Union for the Conservation of NatureNatalia da Silva, Assistant Professor, Universidad de la RepúblicaIgnacio Álvarez, Assistant Professor, Universidad de la RepúblicaZiyan Chu, Consultant The authors would like to thank Stefanie Onder, Diego Herrera, Glenn Marie Lange, EstherNaikal, Stefano Pagiola, Grzegorz Peszko, and Robert B. Smith for their helpful input throughoutthis research. We also thank Helena Cárdenas, Francisco Santiago-Ávila, and Peter Vail for theirassistance with this and earlier versions of this assessment. This report received financial support from the Global Program on Sustainability (GPS) trust fundand the PROGREEN trust fund. CONTENTS TABLES AND FIGURESv ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS vii 1.INTRODUCTION 1 2.DEVELOPMENT OF DATABASE OF NON-WOOD FOREST ECOSYSTEM SERVICEVALUATION STUDIES 2.1Literature Review and Data Extraction42.2Value Estimates by Ecosystem Service and Estimation Method72.3Geographical Distribution of Values by Ecosystem Service102.4Value Estimates122.5Linkages with the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting –Ecosystem Accounting13 3.METHODS FOR THE SPATIAL ESTIMATION OF THE VALUE OF NON-WOOD FORESTECOSYSTEM SERVICES GLOBALLY 3.1Overview193.2Estimation Methods193.2.1Meta-Regression Analysis223.2.2Machine Learning223.2.3Model Comparison and Statistical Criteria for Model Selection253.3Global Predictions26 4.DATABASE CONSTRUCTION AND DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS30 4.1Construction of Global Variables304.2Linking the World Grid to the Study Site Locations344.3Descriptive Analysis344.3.1 Descriptive Statistics Estimation Dataset344.3.2 Comparing the Estimation Dataset and the World Grid38 5.ESTIMATION RESULTS AND GLOBAL PREDICTIONS39 5.1Estimation Results395.1.1 Meta-Regression Analysis395.1.2 Machine Learning Models435.1.3 Model Selection to Generate Global Predictions505.2Global Predictions515.2.1 Global Predictions by Ecosystem Service515.2.2 Aggregate Global Predictions545.3Results Comparison with the Previous Assessments56 6.CONTRIBUTION OF PROTECTED AREAS TO THE VALUE OF NON-WOOD FORESTECOSYSTEM SERVICES 7.DISCUSSION REFERENCES 65 APPENDIX 1:Update the metadata analysis by incorporating newly available studies69A1.1 Identifying potentially relevant studies to update the previous database69A1.2 Study review protocol71A1.3 Determining the applicability of value estimates for this assessment72A1.4 Value estimates by ecosystem services and estimation method76A1.5 Geographical distribution of values by ecosystem service78A1.6 Summary of value estimates82APPENDIX 2:List of studies (included and excluded)83A2.1List of studies included in the meta-analysis83A2.2 Papers reviewed and not included in the meta-analysis98A2.3 Papers unable to retrieve153APPENDIX 3:Study review quality control/quality assurance protocol155APPENDIX 4:Currency conversion156APPENDIX 5:Statistical methods158A5.1 General approach158A5.2 Meta-regression analysis160A5.3 Machine learning alg