2024年全球天然气安全评估93份

Including the Gas Market Report Q4-2024 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energyissues including oil, gas and coal supply anddemand, renewable energy technologies,electricity markets, energy efficiency, access toenergy, demand side management and muchmore. Through its work, the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31member countries,13association countries andbeyond. SpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States IEA member countries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak Republic The European Commissionalso participates in the workof the IEA This publication and any map included herein arewithout prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory, to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundaries and to thename of any territory, city or area. IEA association countries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine Abstract Following the gas supply shock of 2022/23, natural gas marketshave returned to more pronounced growth, with global gas demandexpected to reach new all-time highs in both 2024 and 2025. At thesame time, the global gas balance remains fragile amid limited LNGsupply growth and geopolitical tensions. TheGlobal Gas Security Reviewhas provided a thoroughassessment of the evolution of gas supply security and LNGcontracting trends each year since its first publication by theInternational Energy Agency (IEA) in 2016. This year’s edition alsoincludes the latest insights of the IEA’s quarterlyGas MarketReport, which provides a review of market developments over thefirst three quarters of 2024 and a short-term outlook for theremainder of the year and through 2025. It highlights the need forresponsible producers and consumers to work together to reinforcethe architecture of global gas supply security. Beyond the growing complexity of gas supply security both in theshort and long term, the decarbonisation of the global energysystem will require the deployment and scaling up of low-emissionsgases. As part of the IEA’s Low-Emissions Gases WorkProgramme, this year’sReviewincludes a special section on thistopic, with a focus on the system integration of low-emissions gasesin the transport sector. Table of contents Executive summary..................................................................................................................... 5Review of key gas supply security events in 2024................................................................. 11Gas market update..................................................................................................................... 26LNG contracting and flexibility update.................................................................................... 55System integration of low-emissions gases........................................................................... 74Annex ........................................................................................................................................... 86 A fragile balance: Natural gas markets remain sensitive two years after the gas supply shock (Q1-Q3 2024) – well above the 2% average growth rate between2010 and 2020. The fast-growing markets of Asia accounted for themajority of this growth. First estimates indicate that growth in naturalgas demand slowed to below 2% in Q3 2024 in the marketscovered in this report.1In part, the easing reflects the gradualrecovery in demand, which was already underway in the secondhalf of 2023. Higher gas prices also contributed to slower demandgrowth in Q3 2024. Following the supply shock of 2022/23,natural gas marketsreturned to more pronounced growthin 2024. This forecastexpects global gas demand to reach new all-time highs in 2024 and2025. However, theglobal gas balance remains fragileas limitedgrowth in LNG production is keeping supply tight, while geopoliticaltensions continued to cause price volatility.Markets remainsensitiveto unexpected supply or demand side movements.LNGshipping constraintsemerged across the Panama Canal and theRed Sea in 2024. While this did not lead to a decline in LNG supply,it highlights the potential vulnerabilities of LNG trade in anincreasingly interconnected global gas market. Responsibleproducers and consumers will need to work together toreinforcethe architecture for secure global gas suppliesamid mountinggeopolitical tensions.Flexibility mechanismsalong gas and LNGvalue chains could be enhanced by improving the liquidity of theglobal LNG market, integrating the Ukrainian gas storage systeminto the global gas market and considering potential frameworks forvoluntary gas reserve mechanisms. For the full year of 2024, global gas demand is forecast to grow bymo