未来能源情景2024

ESO Pathways to Net Zero Navigation Page navigation explained Forwarda page Backa page To help you find the information you needquickly and easily we have published thereport as an interactive document. From here you can navigate to any part of the publication Download the PDF in Acrobat Readerto view all interactivity. Text Links Click/taphighlightedorange text tonavigate to an external link. Or to jump toanother section of the document. Download a pdf To download a full copy of this report go towww.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios Contents Foreword04 Introduction05 Executive Summary18 Reducing Great Britain’s Emissions32 The Energy Consumer51 The Energy System 86 Glossary163 Continuing the conversation167 Legal notice168 Foreword Claire Dykta Director of Strategy & Policy Decarbonisation of the energy system is the challenge ofour generation. In recognition of the expansive industrytransformation required to Great Britain’s energy networkplanning, this year’s Future Energy Scenarios (FES)framework has evolved from ‘scenarios’ to ‘pathways’ toexplore narrower ranges and strategic, credible choices topropel us on the route to decarbonisation. This transitionhas also been reflected in our new publication name -Future Energy Scenarios: ESO Pathways to Net Zero. Later this year, we will transform to become theNational Energy System Operator (NESO).We will putour customers, homeowners, businesses and localcommunities at the heart of our work; building onthe strong foundations of the ESO we will deliver afuture where everybody has access to clean, reliable,affordable energy. The evolving dynamics of the energy system call fordecisive action within the next two years to deliverthe fundamental changes required to achieve a fair,affordable, sustainable and secure clean energysystem by 2050. This means we must prioritise stepsthat will enable the delivery of cleaner, cheaper energygeneration whilst ensuring a resilient system thatdelivers security of supply for consumers. As NESO, we will take a holistic approach to planningand facilitating whole energy system decarbonisation.We will be involved in the strategic planning of gas andelectricity networks, integrating them for the first timeto develop a comprehensive whole system plan forfuture network development. We will develop a wholeenergy system view of future marketdirectionso we canrecommend actions to optimise markets across vectorsand reduce costs for consumers.And we will alsoprovide independent advice to Government and Ofgemon energy policy developments. As the Electricity System Operator (ESO), we haveset a target to be able to operate a net zero carbonelectricity system for short durations by next year, whichsets us up to be able to operate a clean power systemthroughout the year in the 2030s. Ongoing global conflictcontinues to create international uncertainty in energymarkets, with the long-term consequences yet to bedetermined, and the cost-of-living and energy crisiscontinues to impact households and businessesacross Great Britain. FES creates the foundation upon which our futurenetwork investment plans will be built. We look forwardto working with industry, the Government, Ofgem andour stakeholders and customers as we transition toNESO and build upon our analysis and insights to deliveron our critical role for society and the economy. Introduction Overview06 The evolution of Future Energy Scenarios framework07Future Energy Scenarios 2024 framework08The pathways and our modelling09Stakeholder engagement10Who uses Future Energy Scenarios11Establishment of the National Energy System Operator12Assessing the landscape15Navigating Future Energy Scenarios 202417 Overview FES was originally established to provide data for input into network planning processes,with our Five Year Forecast designed for use in security of supply (SoS) planning and capacitymarket auctions. Our framework must continue to underpin these critical planning activities andrecognise the wider applications our publication supports, including various regulated energysystem activities alongside policy recommendations and private sector investment. Decisive action is needed within the next two years to deliver thefundamental change required for a fair, affordable, sustainable and securenet zero energy system by 2050.” It is time to go further and faster. To help enable this, our analysis is evolving to align withthe strategic network investment needed across Great Britain. While we continue to producesupply and demand projections, we have transitioned from scenarios to pathways. Our net zero pathways identify three credible, strategic routes to reach net zero. Thesepathways outline a narrower range of outcomes than our previous scenarios, to help driveforward Great Britain’s strategic investment needs and to support the rapid and fundamentalchange that is required. The evolution of Future Energy Scenarios framework FES has evo