铅月报：铅价筑底盘整，等待消费兑现

铅价筑底盘整 等待消费兑现 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 原料端，俄罗斯OZ矿及国内火烧云项目投产陆续落地，年内供应量较有限，难改铅精矿偏紧格局，内外加工费企稳但维持低位。采废料未有显著提升，回收商低价惜售，废旧电瓶价格企稳反弹，供需矛盾支撑价格韧性。 李婷021-68556855li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 供应端，原生铅及再生铅均有检修复产，同时部分原生铅新项目投产后产量释放，供应增加，预计3-4万吨增量。8月中旬铅锭进口陷入亏损，前期锁单货源消耗后，进口补充压力将大为缓解。 黄蕾huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端看，消费端受政策加码，汽车及电动自行车均获得“以旧换新”政策补贴，置换需求有望释放，同时电动车新国标放宽车重限制，利多铅蓄电池消费改善。政策接踵而至，消费预期改善，部分蓄企已上调生产计划。 高慧gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体来看，产业链节后复工，供需呈现双增的格局，但供应增速将大于消费增速，累库压力尚存施压铅价，预计10月铅价延续区间16300-17500元/吨筑底。中期看，进口货源补充压力减弱，叠加政策逐步转化至消费兑现，铅价重心有望缓慢上移。 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 策略建议：逢低做多 风险因素：海外降息不及预期，国内消费弱于预期 目录 一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1海内外铅矿产量渐恢复...................................................42.1.2铅矿进口窗口关闭，内外加工费企稳......................................62.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................72.2.1海外炼厂复产，供应边际改善............................................72.2.2检修复产叠加新项目释放，原生铅供应增加................................72.2.3废旧电瓶价格企稳回升，炼厂复产预计带动再生铅供应恢复..................82.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................102.3.1全球精炼铅需求情况....................................................102.3.2铅蓄电池消费现边际改善迹象...........................................112.3.2 .1沪伦比价回落，利空铅进口利多铅及电池出口...........................112.3.2 .2政策加码利多终端消费...............................................122.4全球显性库存去库........................................................13三、总结与后市展望........................................................14 图表目录 图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2 2024年海外铅矿产量变化（万吨）............................................................................5图表3全球铅矿月度产量情况................................................................................................5图表4国内铅矿产量情况........................................................................................................5图表5内外铅矿加工费情况....................................................................................................6图表6铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................6图表7铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................6图表8银精矿进口情况............................................................................................................6图表9全球精炼铅月度产量....................................................................................................7图表10 2024年海外炼厂产量变化情况（万吨）..................................................................7图表11原生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................8图表12原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................8图表13 2024年国内原生铅新扩建产能（万吨）..................................................................8图表14再生精铅产量情况......................................................................................................9图表15再生铅企业开工率......................................................................................................9图表16废电池价格加速上涨..................................................................................................9图表17再生铅企业利润情况..................................................................................................9图表18全球精炼铅月度需求情况........................................................................................10图表19全球精炼铅月度供需缺口情况................................................................................10图表20美国汽车销量情况....................................................................................................10图表21欧元区汽车销量情况................................................................................................10图表22铅蓄电池周度开工率情况........................................................................................11图表23铅蓄电池出口情况....................................................................................................11图表24精炼铅出口情况........................................................................................................12图表25精炼铅出口盈亏情况................................................................................................12图表26精炼铅进口情况........................................................................................................12图表27精炼铅进口盈亏情况................................................................................................12图表28铅酸蓄电池终端消费占比........................................................................................13图表29汽车产量情况..............................................................................................