国债：政策定力和预期落空，以及大洋彼岸的周期逆转

8MLF LPRMLFMLFMLFMLF 95 FED7850bp60% Z0016413gaoxiang@nawaa.com 20111290 1. 1.1 T2412106.940.18%TF2412105.2250.06%TS2412102.4160.02%TL2412115.31.03%2.04%0.64bp7.05bp1.4% 8MLF LPRMLFMLFMLFMLF 95 FED“”7850bp60% 1.29FOMC 1.2.1 FFRFFR50bp4,.75%-5%250+350MBS50bp5%50005.34.8%1600 2%remains somewhat elevated 2%has gainedgreater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent roughly balanced 21-2725bp950bp20253.4%150bp60.7pct 2%6 2.1%PCE2.3%2.6%PCE2.6%2.8%2025PCE2.1%0.2pctPCE2.2%0.1pct4.4%4%0.1pct2.9% 1.2.2 150bpWe know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinderprogress on inflationAt the same timereducing restraint too slowly couldunduly weaken economic activity and employmentFEDaprocess of recalibrating our policy stanceFED FED50bp78 250bp 350bpI think you can take this as a sign of our commitment not to getbehind 4we're not thinkingabout stopping runoff because of this at all 54% 1.2.3 11919 250bpFED7-50bp111250bpFED 3FED 4FOMCLPR 2. 2.1 2.2 / 136310008400 8888 910www.nanhua.net603093