2024年二季度美国公共PE和GP交易综述2024

Q2 2024 US Public PE & GP Deal Roundup

Key Takeaways:

• AUM and Fundraising:

  • Share of Alternative Industry Assets Under Management (AUM) by strategy reached $3,641.3 billion as of June 30, 2024.
  • Total fundraising across all strategies increased by 43.7% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in the prior year.

• GP Activity:

  • GP consolidation and deal flow involving GP franchises as targets are on track to surpass the 2021 record. GP deal count is up 84.0% year-to-date (YTD), and control transactions by GPs are expected to exceed 75 this year, compared to 42 in 2023.
  • $316.0 billion in AUM has traded so far this year, accounting for 2.1% of total industry AUM, indicating a clear phase of consolidation.

• Fundraising Dynamics:

  • Fundraising was boosted by strategic combinations, such as KKR's acquisition of Global Atlantic, TPG's purchase of Angelo Gordon, and Carlyle's consolidation of Fortitude. Even after adjustments, organic fundraising growth was estimated at a healthy 40%.

• Credit Origination:

  • Deployment and/or origination within credit strategies surged by 155.4% YTD over 2023, with Apollo leading with total origination of $146.0 billion TTM, nearly doubling its closest peer.

• Realizations:

  • Realizations improved by 57.1% YoY and 28.9% YTD, with managers expecting further improvement in the second half of the year due to anticipated central bank rate cuts and a soft economic landing.

• PE Performance:

  • Gross PE returns for the trailing 12-month (TTM) period ranged from 0.5% to 18.1%, with KKR leading the pack. Returns have been stable around the 9% to 11% range in recent quarters.

• Private Credit Performance:

  • Gross private credit returns remained significantly higher than PE returns, with a median quarterly and TTM return of 3.0% and 16.4%, respectively.

• Deployment:

  • Corporate PE deployment increased by 40.9% QoQ in Q2 2024, totaling $11.3 billion, though still down 23.2% YTD.

Summary:

The Q2 2024 US public PE and GP deal roundup highlights robust activity in private credit, with exceptional performance and growth, contrasting with a more stable but less dynamic picture in private equity. Consolidation trends are evident in GP activity, while fundraising shows significant growth, particularly in credit strategies. Realizations have shown improvement, and managers anticipate further growth in the coming months. Despite a notable increase in deployment in Q2, corporate PE deployment remains below the year's midpoint, pointing towards a mixed outlook for the sector.