宏观担忧未解，锌价先抑后扬

宏观担忧未解 锌价先抑后扬 核心观点及策略 要点要点宏观面看，美国经济衰退担忧犹存，市场押注美联储大幅降息预期升温，但存在不及预期的风险。国内经济下行压力较大，政策加码的必要性增强。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 要点供应端看，海外矿山再现扰动，俄罗斯OZ矿开始生产，国内火烧云产量有所释放，不改现期全球矿端偏紧格局，内外加工费维持承压态势。炼厂联合减产应对TC下跌诉求较强，后期持续跟踪减产兑现情况，供应端弹性较弱。当前精炼锌进口窗口尚未开启，进口货源冲击有限。 李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端看，海外需求不稳定，高库存高贴水的组合延续压制锌价。国内高温渐退，基建实物量增量有望体现，汽车及家电在政策加持下预计延续向好，且东南亚需求稳健提振镀锌板出口，但地产端消费拖累难言改善。 高慧gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体来看，宏观主导方向，供需决定相对强弱。国内外经济下行压力均较大，宏观情绪偏谨慎，关注后期美联储大幅降息及国内政策加码的兑现情况。矿侧对冶炼弹性约束持续，同时消费渐入旺季，供需存边际改善预期。在宏观情绪疲软的背景下，预计9月锌价震荡偏弱，主要运行区间22500-24500元/吨，较健康的基本面支持锌可作为有色板块对冲的多配品种。同时去库预期犹存，跨月仍以正套思路对待。 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 操作建议：单边区间操作，跨期滚动正套 风险因素：海外经济深度衰退，国内旺季消费远不及预期 目录 2.1美国方面...................................................................................................................................42.2欧元区方面...............................................................................................................................52.3国内方面..................................................................................................................................5 3.1锌矿供应情况...........................................................................................................................73.1.1供应仍有扰动，全球锌精矿恢复缓慢...............................................................................73.1.2锌精矿进口环比增加，但加工费未有止跌迹象...........................................................103.2精炼锌供应情况.....................................................................................................................113.2.1海外炼厂减复产并存，供应端修复.................................................................................113.2.2炼厂释放联合减产信号，精炼锌进口窗口暂未开启...................................................123.3精炼锌需求情况.....................................................................................................................133.3.1海外需求改善不稳定.........................................................................................................133.3.2初端企业开工维持淡季特征，镀锌板出口表现尚可...................................................153.3.3终端延续分化，存韧性但亮点有限.................................................................................163.4内外库存走势分化......................................................19 图表目录 图表1沪锌主连及LME三月期锌走势.................................................................................4图表2美国通胀情况................................................................................................................6图表3美国利率水平................................................................................................................6图表4美国就业市场.................................................................................................................6图表5欧美PMI数据...............................................................................................................6图表6欧元区通胀情况............................................................................................................6图表7欧元区利率水平............................................................................................................6图表8国内PMI数据................................................................................................................7图表9国内社融情况................................................................................................................7图表10 2024年海外锌矿产量增减情况（万吨）..................................................................8图表11全球锌矿月度产量情况...............................................................................................9图表12国内锌矿月度产量情况..............................................................................................9图表14 2024年海外矿山扰动事件汇总（万吨）................................................................10图表15内外矿加工费降至极低水平....................................................................................11图表16锌矿进口盈亏............................................................................................................11图表17锌矿进口情况............................................................................................................11图表18冶炼厂原料库存天数................................................................................................11图表19全球精炼锌月度产量情况........................................................................................12图表20 2024年初以来海外炼厂事件汇总（万吨）............................................................12图表21国内精炼锌月度产量................................................................................................13图表22冶炼厂生产利润........................................................................................................13图表23精炼锌净进口情况....................................................................................................13图表24精炼锌进口盈亏情况.................................................................................................13图表25全球精炼锌月度需求情