“打新定期跟踪”系列之一百八十四：国科天成上市首日均价涨幅达到241%

主要观点 ⚫跟踪不同情景下的打新收益率 我们估算以下几种情景下的2024年至今的打新收益率。 情景1：所有主板、科创板、创业板的股票都打中。A类2亿规模账户打新收益率1.20%，C类2亿规模账户打新收益率0.95%；情景2：只打上市时公司已实现正盈利的股票，A类2亿规模账户打新收益率1.20%，C类2亿规模账户打新收益率0.95%；情景3：只打上市时公司已实现正盈利，且上市PE不超过同行业市盈率的股票，A类2亿规模账户打新收益率0.94%，C类2亿规模账户打新收益率0.76%；情景4：为事后估计，假设机构的新股定价能力很强，双创新股上市后上涨的股票中能够打中100%，且避开所有下跌的股票，A类2亿规模账户打新收益率1.21%，C类2亿规模账户打新收益率0.96%。 分析师：钱静闲执业证书号：S0010522090002邮箱：qianjx@hazq.com 分析师：吴正宇执业证书号：S0010522090001邮箱：wuzy@hazq.com 分析师：骆昱杉执业证书号：S0010522110001邮箱：luoyushan@hazq.com ⚫风险提示 新股上市可能破发，打新策略可能取得负向收益。新股上市前面临诸多不确定因素，可能会暂停发行，影响打新收益。新股上市数量、申购新股人数、二级市场情绪波动等因素可能影响打新收益。基金公司历史入围率不代表未来，本文意见仅供参考。 1.《六月共上市6只新股，打新收益有所回温——“打新定期跟踪”系列之一百七十七》 2.《安乃达、键邦股份上市首日涨幅均超100%——“打新定期跟踪”系列之一百七十八》3.《乔锋智能上市首日均价涨幅达114%——“打新定期跟踪”系列之一百七十九》4.《新股龙图光罩首次施行高剔3%的询价规则——“打新定期跟踪”系列之一百八十》5.《七月共上市6只新股，首日涨幅环比回落——“打新定期跟踪”系列之一百八十一》6.《首只高剔3%新股上市首日均价涨幅约101%——“打新定期跟踪”系列之一百八十二》7.《科创板打新增加600万市值要求，预计中签率小幅提升——“打新定期跟踪”系列之一百八十三》 正文目录 1跟踪不同情景下的打新收益率..........................................................................................................................................................42近期新股打新结果...............................................................................................................................................................................73近期新股日历.......................................................................................................................................................................................84近期打新市场表现...............................................................................................................................................................................94.1近两个月内新上市股票.................................................................................................................................................................................94.2近两个月打新收益测算.................................................................................................................................................................................95理论打新收益测算.............................................................................................................................................................................105.1不同规模账户逐股票打新..........................................................................................................................................................................105.2不同规模A类户逐月打新收益...............................................................................................................................................................115.3不同规模C类户逐月打新收益...............................................................................................................................................................13风险提示：.............................................................................................................................................................................................15 图表目录 图表12024至今不同情景打新收益（A类账户）.........................................................................................................................................4图表22024至今不同情景打新收益（C类账户）.........................................................................................................................................5图表32022年至今逐月上市规模（亿元）......................................................................................................................................................5图表4科创板个股近期涨幅....................................................................................................................................................................................6图表5创业板个股近期涨幅....................................................................................................................................................................................6图表6科创板个股报价账户数量...........................................................................................................................................................................6图表7创业板个股报价账户数量...........................................................................................................................................................................6图表8主板有效报价账户数量................................................................................................................................................................................7图表9近期新股发行数量.........................................................................................................................................................................................8图表10打新流程图....................................................................................................................................................................................................8图表11待上市股票状态汇总..................................................................................................................................................................................8图表12待上市股票状态明细........