铅月报：挤仓或反复，铅价难以深跌

挤仓或反复 铅价难以深跌 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 ⚫原料端，全球铅精矿供应恢复较为缓慢，内外加工费延续回落，高富含进口矿加工费降幅较大，进口盈利低于理论值。783号令影响下，回收商畏跌抛售，叠加电池报废量增加，废旧电瓶供应紧张略缓。 李婷021-68556855li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 ⚫供应端，得益于废旧电瓶供应增加及进口粗铅流入补充，原生铅及再生铅炼厂原料紧张情况均一定程度上有所缓解，炼厂逐步复产。同时，沪伦比价走扩给到精炼铅进口机会，7月底货源集中到港。供应紧张缓解，现货货源明显增加。 黄蕾huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 ⚫需求端，海外消费疲软，高库存压力转移至国内诉求较高。铅蓄电池旺季消费表现分化，移动基站及数据中心储能电池需求强劲，但电动自行车及汽车蓄电池更换需求较平淡，企业以销定产居多。 高慧gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫整体看，供应紧张边际改善，且结构矛盾有所缓解，挤仓风险降温，沪铅回落压力增加。但沪伦比价收窄后，铅元素进口利润压缩，进口量存回落预期，供应结构矛盾及挤仓或有反复，叠加消费旺季边际改善，故预计铅价回落空间受限。预计8月沪铅主要运行区间在17500-19000元/吨。 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫策略建议：观望 ⚫风险因素：宏观情绪转向，供应超预期增加 目录 一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1海内外铅矿产量缓慢恢复.................................................42.1.2铅矿进口窗口维持开启，内外加工费继续寻底..............................52.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................72.2.1海外炼厂复产，供应边际改善............................................72.2.2原生铅炼厂检修复产并存，原料供应温和改善..............................72.2.3783号令扰动回收商及再生铅炼厂........................................82.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................102.3.1全球精炼铅需求情况....................................................102.3.2铅蓄电池消费步入旺季.................................................102.3.2 .1沪伦比价延续走强，利多铅进口利空铅及电池出口.......................112.3.2 .2终端消费有韧性.....................................................122.4海外累库，国内显著去库..................................................14 图表目录 图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2全球铅矿月度产量情况................................................................................................5图表3国内铅矿产量情况........................................................................................................5图表4 2024年海外铅矿产量变化（万吨）............................................................................5图表5内外铅矿加工费情况....................................................................................................6图表6铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................6图表7铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................6图表8银精矿进口情况............................................................................................................6图表9全球精炼铅月度产量....................................................................................................7图表10 2024年海外炼厂产量变化情况（万吨）..................................................................7图表11原生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................8图表12原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................8图表13 2024年国内原生铅新扩建产能（万吨）..................................................................8图表14再生精铅产量情况......................................................................................................9图表15再生铅企业开工率......................................................................................................9图表16废电池价格加速上涨..................................................................................................9图表17再生铅企业利润情况..................................................................................................9图表18全球精炼铅月度需求情况........................................................................................10图表19全球精炼铅月度供需缺口情况................................................................................10图表20美国汽车销量情况....................................................................................................10图表21欧元区汽车销量情况................................................................................................10图表22铅蓄电池周度开工率情况........................................................................................11图表23铅蓄电池出口情况....................................................................................................11图表24精炼铅出口情况........................................................................................................12图表25精炼铅出口盈亏情况................................................................................................12图表26精炼铅进口情况........................................................................................................12图表27精炼铅进口盈亏情况................................................................................................12图表28铅酸蓄电池终端消费占比........................................................................................13图表29汽车产量情况............................................................................................................13图表30汽车保有量.........................