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贸易政策的混合和匹配

商贸零售2024-07-25世界银行单***

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Policy Research Working Paper 10855: Trade Policies Mix and Match - Theory and Evidence

Overview:

The Policy Research Working Paper 10855 explores the intricate relationship between tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) in international trade, focusing on how governments strategically mix these policies to achieve domestic objectives. The paper employs empirical evidence and theoretical models to analyze the dynamics of trade policy interactions, particularly in light of recent trade tensions and the shift towards NTMs in trade negotiations.

Key Findings:

Empirical Evidence: Utilizing detailed bilateral ad valorem equivalent (AVE) estimates of NTMs, the study finds that overall, tariffs and NTMs serve as policy substitutes, with governments imposing more restrictive NTMs on products or trading partners with lower tariffs. However, the relationship between tariffs and NTMs varies significantly based on characteristics of importing and exporting countries, as well as product types.
Interaction Factors:
- High-income Importing Countries: These economies tend to have more liberal tariffs but stricter NTMs.
- Low-income Exporting Countries: Similarly, these countries exhibit a pattern of more liberal tariffs and stringent NTMs.
- Deep Trade Agreements: Country pairs with strong trade ties often see lower tariffs paired with restrictive NTMs.
- Product Characteristics: Consumption products, agricultural products, and food and beverages are more likely to face policies that substitute tariffs with NTMs. Conversely, intermediate products and capital goods within global value chains (GVCs) often experience complementary trade policies.
Theoretical Model:
- A simple terms-of-trade model is introduced to explain the strategic use of tariffs and NTMs. This model demonstrates how a welfare-maximizing government might use these tools to mitigate negative consumption externalities from imports, aligning with Copeland's (1994) framework but focusing on the impact of NTMs on consumption rather than production.

Implications:

The findings underscore the complexity of trade policy decisions and highlight the importance of considering multiple factors when analyzing the effectiveness of tariffs versus NTMs. Policymakers need to navigate the balance between maintaining market access and protecting consumers from potential harms associated with imported goods. The empirical evidence supports the notion that trade policies are not static but dynamic, influenced by economic conditions, trade agreements, and policy objectives.

Methodology:

The paper employs advanced econometric techniques, including fixed-effects instrumental variable regressions, to analyze the data comprehensively. This approach allows for a nuanced understanding of the interplay between tariffs and NTMs, accounting for various country-specific and product characteristics.

Conclusion:

Policy Research Working Paper 10855 contributes to the ongoing discourse on trade policy by offering empirical insights and theoretical frameworks that elucidate the nuanced relationship between tariffs and NTMs. It underscores the strategic importance of understanding how different trade policies can be mixed and matched to address specific economic and social objectives, particularly in the context of evolving global trade dynamics.

10855 交易政策MixandMatch eory和Ev id Hiau Looi Kee谢恩泽开发E conom ics开发R搜索程序pJuly 2024 政策研究工作文件10855 Abstract 是论文研究塔里瓦和塔里瓦之间的关系非关税措施(NTM)来了解最近的贸易与政府混合贸易政策的紧张关系，例如欧盟将非关税壁垒强加给欧盟-在中国电动汽车上的影响。基于lat est的结果双边p腐蚀水平的非管Ms显示，总体上塔利和NTM是p - olicy替代品。对于高收入国家来说，低收入国家-ING国家，以深厚的贸易协议和与消费相关的产品。简单的术语-贸易模型展示了福利最大化政府可能会混合贸易政策以减少消费结构估计与RMresu lt s. 《政策研究工作论文系列》传播正在进行工作的成果，以促进关于发展的思想交流。系列研究的目标之一是在呈现不够完美的情况下快速发布研究成果。论文带有未完成的痕迹。作者姓名应相应引用。本文中表达的观点、解读和结论完全属于作者本人。作者的观点。它们不一定代表国际复兴开发银行/世界银行的观点。它的组织，或世界银行执行董事或他们所代表的政府。贸易PoliciesMixand匹配项:Theoryand证据* EnzeXIE‡浙江大学and世界BankHiauLooiKEE†世界Bank 关键词:关税,non - tari措施，ad价价等效,贸易政策,外部性 JELCode:F13,F14 †对应作者。DevelopmentResearchGroup,The世界Bank;1818HSTNW,华盛顿,DC20433.Tel:1-202-4734155;Fax:1-202-5221159;电子邮件：hlkee @ worldbank. org. ‡Schoolof经济学,浙江大学,中国,and Development Research Group,The世界Bank.电子邮件：ezxie2019 @ nsd. pku. edu. cn. “Theold世界of贸易wasa世界where生产系统were国家andwhere障碍to贸易were关于保护domestic生产者fom外国竞争。By对比,thenew世界isa世界where生产is跨国沿着全球供应链条of货物and服务andwhere障碍to贸易are关于保护the消费者fom风险。Thisisanew版本oftheold划分betweenTARIsandnon - tari措施。“。—TheNew世界of贸易，帕斯卡Lamy,TheThirdJanTumlir讲座,2015 1Introduction ATIAR ,the最简单的贸易政策,isatax征收whenagoodis进口andhas传统beenusedasa来源of政府income(克鲁格曼etal.2018The连续轮of多边谈判自the1950shave带来了downTARIsformany国家。Inmore最近年,withthe增殖of区域贸易协议(see图1多边谈判are主要关于协调，simpliifyingor相互承认non - tari措施(NTMs)(埃德灵顿2001NTMsare政策措施其他thanTARIsthatcan潜在的havean经济eecton国际贸易in货物andaim主要是at保护publichealthorthe环境(UNC-TAD2015 Doesthisshif in焦点in贸易谈判表示thatTARIsandNTMsare政策替代品?In其他单词,withTARIs减少bymany贸易协议,do政府度假村toNTMsto保护thedomestic经济fr o进口竞争?What因素确定the学位of替换betweenTARIsandNTMs?The答案to这些问题could拓宽our理解ofhow不同的国家coulduse不同的贸易政策on不同的产品to地址domestic目标,suchas保障public健康,andevento提前全球目标,suchas打击气候变更(哈斯塔德2024 The正在进行中贸易紧张局势andCONICS，high-点亮bythe欧洲接头(EU)impositive临时反补贴职责,atypeofNTMs,onthe进口of蓄电池电动车辆fr o中国,ontopofthe现有10%tari夫s,encapsu -late政府积极mixand匹配TARIsandNTMsoncritical产品,下划线whyweshouldcare关于这些questions.Many论文havebeen贡献to答案someofthe上面问题,withmost论文结论thatTARIsandNTMsare政策替代品。²然而,轶事证据建议thatthe关系betweenthetwo贸易政策仪器ismore细微差别。For例如,Chenetal.(ndthat在2018-2019,atthe高度of美国-中国贸易war,the中文政府增加TARIsand强加NTMson农业产品fr o theUS.Thiswould建议thatthetwo政策are补充。稍后in2020,withthe签字ofthePurchaseAgreement,theNTMsonUS农业货物were已删除没有改变tari夫s,指示thatthetwo政策are替代品。同样，印度isthe目标ofmanyWTO争议定居点,with导出国家suchas巴西,澳大利亚,and危地马拉抱怨关于印度的NTMsonsugar,while中文台北andtheEU抱怨关于印度的tari on信息技术产品。Thiscould meanthatfor印度,TARIsandNTMsare互补政策。 Thispaperaimsto答案这些重要问题byrst介绍new经验证据基于on详细估计数of产品级双边ad价价等效(AVE)ofNTMsfr o KeeandNicita(Thisisthe点of离开ofthispaperfr o the现有文学,由此详细产品级双边AVEsareusedto比较the贸易影响ofNTMswiththe贸易影响oftari夫s,inx - e夫等仪器变量回归池化跨越产品,进口-ingand导出国家。Inaddition,to捕获各种特性of进口国家,导出国家,and产品thatmayaectthe关系betweenTARIsandNTMs,相关相互作用术语andxede夫ectsare包括inthe回归。 Our经验结果CONRMthat总体TARIsandNTMsare政策替代品inthe感觉that政府impactmore限制性NTMson产品or交易合作伙伴withlowertari夫s. 然而,取决于onthe特性of进口国家,导出国家and产品,政府alsomixand匹配TARIsandNTMs,whichmayturnthe关系betweenTARIsandNTMstobeless替换andmayevenbe互补。For例如,进口经济with更高的incomeoraremore资本or熟练劳动丰富are很可能tohavemore自由主义者TARIs and限制性NTMs,同样forthe导出国家thatare劳动丰富orhavelower收入。较低TARIs耦合with限制性NTMsare发现incountry成对withdeep贸易协议while参与度in传统多边协议suchasWTOhasno显著不能影响onthe关系betweenTARIsandNTMs.Policy替换isalso发现in消耗量产品,农业产品andfoodand饮料产品。In对比,中间产品and资本产品whicharepartofGVCs,ofenface互补贸易政策。 To合理化这些经验编码，thispaper介绍a简单贸易条件模型已建成onEderington(Inthis模型，the政府选择TARIsandNTMsto最大化社会福利。相反ofa负外部性相关withthe生产ofthe进口productasinEderington(inthispaper,Thereisa负外部性相关withthe消耗量ofthe进口productwhichcanbe减少bythe限制性NTMs,类似tothatofCopeland(Thee eectivenessofNTMsin减少外部性取决于onthe治理and机构-9.3 Please引用toDS579,DS580andDS581for争议between巴西,澳大利亚,危地马拉and印度onnon - tari措施关于糖and甘蔗,分别。传统质量ofthe进口国家,the合规能力ofthe导出国家,andtheproduct特点。联合,bothTARIsandNTMs创建a楔形betweenthe世界价格andthedomestic价格of进口货物。类似totari夫s,NTMsreduce进口and按压the世界价格,领导to贸易条件收益。此外，NTMsalso改进社会福利直接by减少the消耗量外部性of进口。In均衡，国家with市场功率will选择toimpact正TARIsandNTMs,whichgiverisetothe政策替换betweenthetwo工具。The重量ofthe消耗量外部性inthe社会福利函数andthe严重程度of外部性取决于onthe特性of进口国家and产品,whichinuenceshowthe福利最大化政府maymixand匹配thetwo政策。结构估计ofthe模型参数lendcredencetothe理论and协作withthe以前的简化形式编码。 Thispaperrelatestoboththe理论性and经验文献on贸易政策决定，特别是关于the关系betweentheuseofTARIsandNTMs.Even虽然many论文havecontributedtothistopic,这些isno清除共识。Onthe经验frot,whilethe更早证据表示thatTARIsandNTMsare政策补语(LeeandSwagel1997themore最近证据自2000建议the相反(Beverellietal.2019BownandTovar2011Feinbergand雷诺兹2007Herghelegiu2018Keeetal.2009Ketterer2016利芒andTovar2011摩尔andZanardi2011Niuetal.20182020OreCE2017These最近研究are异质inthe类型and经验测量ofNTMs,tari夫s,and样本覆盖范围。Some其他work支架thatTARIsandNTMsare互补orthe关系betweenth

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